BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail
Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.
FRIDAY JUNE 5th 2020
LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points
TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points
OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points
Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = +0.085 points
BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points
PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 ) overall profit = +0.085 points
PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97% Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%
LESS IS MORE:
Coming to a normal LIM cycle in June, this is the sort of race I’d like having a right go at with three top quality sorts taking on an underpriced talking horse. With bookmakers moolah in the bank, I’d be having a right go here. Sadly we are in an unprecedented LIM year and this is not the sort of race I would normally be taking on as a first race in the cycle. Normally like waiting for a banker type to begin with to avoid dipping into bank right from the start. Unfortunately waiting for one of those at the moment might see us failing to play before Xmas and LIM is a daily bet system so it’s time to bite the bullet and get stuck in – cautious though staking must be.
This is like the Cheltenham LIM I landed this year with Defi Du Sieul. There won’t be many wanting to take on Ghaiyyath who is the 5th highest rated horse in the world at the moment but that is based on fairly flimsy evidence and in my book, serious galloping machine though he is, he has negatives in this race and takes on three proper rivals in last year’s Coronation Cup winner Defoe, the legendary stayer that is Stradivarius and the genuine value of the race, last year’s Derby winner O’Brien’s Anthony Van Dyck who is travelling from Ireland at a time like this which is a tip in itself. He is just about the form horse in my book and at 8/1 represents the sort of value one cannot ignore. Ghaiyyath is a 5/2 or 11/4 shot on my race read and so at 6/4 fav, this is an LIM race right enough. If it cops we press on; if it fails because Ghaiyyath justifies his world ranking, we have to take it on the chin and battle this year pretty much the way we already have been. Winning despite the circumstances we are having to play in!
So why do I think Ghaiyyath can get beat? Well he is an impressive monster of a horse right enough and when on song, he does gallop them into the ground. Was the strong fancy for the 2018 Derby before his injury and therein lies the first negative. We haven’t seen him much since. Looked imperious over this distance at Baden Baden last year and was mighty impressive on the dirt in Meydan in February where he broke the course record over 1m 2f. And the two negatives are in that and the fact that sandwiched between was his dismal run in the Arc where he led for a mile but fell in a fairly serious hole looking a real non stayer over 1m 4f in the soft ground. He couldn’t win that race on the book anyways already held by Waldgeist and Enable but the way he went out like a light brings his stamina seriously into doubt for me given that his breeding as a Dubawi lends more towards the 1m 2f. The mile and a half he won in Germany was emphatic and in theory guarantees his stamina but he beat nothing that day and likewise in Meydan and he won’t be beating Defoe and Stradivarius by the country mile he won there where he was given the lead and allowed to gallop away at his dictate. Can’t see Frankie falling for that one on Stradivarius.
The pundits are arguing that Newmarket will be ideal for Ghaiyyath as he is 2/2 there from juvenile days but that Godolphin Autumn Cup he won in 2017 looks a soft race to me as well. I’ve watched it back and whilst he galloped through well over a mile that day, he beat nothing again and the second that day hasn’t gone on to be anywhere near the standard Ghaiyyath must defeat here. And I don’t necessarily agree that fast ground at Newmarket will be ideal for him either. He looks all over a dirt horse to me as so many of Godolphin’s best are. He’ll gallop strongly and is a big stuffy sort that do that sort of thing so that the rest will perhaps need to work to stay with him but he has no toe like Stradivarius has and not the stamina breeding that Anthony Van Dyck boasts.He’s vulnerable to both of those as finishers for me and that’s without Defoe in the field. Defoe will likely be the one taking him on early and can match him on form so far. More exposed than Ghaiyyath who could still be improving but out of the two I’d prefer the value with Defoe based on what is in the book. That Arc run of Ghaiyyath’s has to be seriously forgiven and although the soft ground wasn’t ideal, it wasn’t the reason he stopped to a walk. He hit the stamina brick wall that day and this race should go to a top class mile and a half horse which all the other three are. Stradivarius does further these days of course but is a toe horse. Given the ride, he’ll have the finish to be competitive you would have thought and he’d be my selection were it not for Anthony Van Dyck. His price reflects the fact that he won a substandard Derby and then got beat by a stable mate in the Irish follow up although I would contend that we don’t know how that race weighs in because Sovereign hasn’t run again since and could be top class which makes the runner up effort staying on a decent enough effort by Anthony Van Dyck who has been very highly tried since his Derby win.In that and his best race to date, the Breeders Cup turf, he met trouble in running and can be an on and off the bridle horse. He needed pumping early at Epsom but the way he quickened down the hill off a fast past was very taking albeit that he only just hung on to the line in what was in any case an O’Brien carve up race with his having seven of the runners and at least five of the best ones! It wasn’t an in depth Derby field he beat.
The Breeders Cup turf however was top drawer and but for getting checked in his run a furlong out, he might have won that. Bricks and Mortar was a top drawer winner and the time on fast going bodes well for this race here. Better than anything Ghaiyyath has recorded except for that 1m 2f on the dirt at Meydan which was his LTO effort. If Ghaiyyath can replicate that and is still improving as the talkers insist then maybe he can win.
But at the odds, we have to take him on. We’ve got three running for us and they can certainly all win on the book.
0.25pt LAY on GHAIYYATH (around 2.5. Get the best price you can)
0.1pt BACK on ANTHONY VAN DYCK (around 9.0. Get the best price you can)
THE BOZmail post lockdown litmus test:
SHORTLIST LEVEL STAKES DAILY P/L :
Day One: +23.16
Day Two: – 29.33
Day Three: -36.58
Day Four: +15.00
Friday is the final day of publishing the shortlist on The Bozmail unless the LIM doesn’t get off to a good start in which case I’ll continue it on into June as previously stated. Hopefully however it has shown itself over this recovery from lockdown week for what it is.Newmarket festival week is a subs bench player and that landed a welcome 33/1 winner today. Keep your eye on a low incidence card there on Friday. Mostly, a useful form guide tool in my opinion these days. Still capable of landing the Placepots and Jackpots it was designed for as we saw at Kempton on Wednesday and as much a tool for laying strategy as backing strategy when the day’s tracks are non premier ones as all this week have been.
It is a labour intensive business compiling all meetings by hand each day and of course what you have been seeing here is what I call the full throttle unfiltered Shortlist in its purest form. I have introduced various filters to reduce selection incidence at the premier tracks over the past 22 years of its existence and subscribers get back on track with the streamlined version at Bath on June 11th. Any not already subscribed to that who now want to join in can let me know. The revised fixture lists have already gone out but I will take a few new names now if there is interest in view of the sort of year this is. That Kempton effort did inspire me to revisit the through the card for Jackpot and Placepot aspect of the service and the streamlined version did land the bet from much smaller incidence when I looked at it retrospectively. The version you saw of course was the litmus test version of a non premier track and as such the system has also done an excellent job in showing me where we are at in terms of formbook reliance and market accuracy post lockdown. We’ll see if I’m correct in getting back to LIM earlier than forecast with today’s result! The plans remain flexible at the moment as you might imagine if Ghaiyyath does defy me and win the Coronation Cup!
The shortlist service does resume for definite however on June 11th at Bath and if you aren’t already signed up for that but would like to be, do let me know (firstname.lastname@example.org). I’ll send you revised subscriber details. Just £15 for the rest of the year now.
BOZBETS during the Litmus Test:
Day four: £1 win on Le Musee @ 5/1 – WON
DAY FOUR P/L = +5-00 Ongoing P/L = +8-50
************** Good winner to finish. Hope you got the 10/1!
NEWCASTLE SHORTLIST: (4.6.20) RESULTS : 6 winners : 6 placers : 2 x CSF
1-00 Spantik – Guipure(1st@6/1) – Shoot to Win – Fraternity – Lyricist Voice – Bottom Bay(3rd@12/1) – Blausee -Rosardo Senorita(NR) – Idoapologise
1-35 Brunch(1st@1/1) – Splinter(3rd@9/4)
2-10 Home for Half Past – Al Salt(1st@5/2)
2-45 Zodiakos – Rich Approach(NR) – Highlight Reel – Bombastic(1st@5/1)
3-20 Jerbourg – Order of St John – Leoch – Nibras Shadow(3rd@8/1) – Spirit of Sahara – Star of St James
3-55 A’Ali – Dream Shot
4-30 NO SELECTION
5-05 Bossipop – Glory Fighter(2nd@14/1) – Cool Spirit – Show Palace – Society Queen – Tabaahy(1st@11/2) CSF = £79-02
5-40 Zabeel Star(2nd@7/2) – Le Musee(1st@5/1) – Accessor – Tapis Libre
CSF = £22-08
6-15 Clifftop Heaven(2nd@16/1) – Amprey Red – Dorset Blue
(Incidence: 36 selections in 9 races) Level Stakes Win P/L = -5-00
NEWMARKET SHORTLIST: (4.6.20) RESULTS: 2 winners : 3 placers : 1 x CSF
1-15 &1-50 &2-25 &3-00 &3-35 &4-10 NO SELECTIONS
4-45 Count Otto(3rd@5/1) – Firmdecisions – Tin Hat(2nd@14/1)
5-20 Bungee Jump(1st@33/1) – Colonel Frank – Commander Han
5-55 Lyndon B – Hateya – Excellent Times – Arbalet
6-30 Starfighter – Pactolus – Inclyne(1st@3/1) – Givinitsum – Involved(2nd@11/2) – Zzoro – Geranium – Heart Of Soul CSF = £17-75
(Incidence: 18 selections in 4 races) Level Stakes Win P/L = +20-00
NEWMARKET SHORTLIST: (5.6.20)
1-50 Magical Memory – Open Wide – Staxton
3-00 Sangarius – Vale of Kent – Escobar
3-35 Ghaiyyath – Defoe
4-10 Skymax – Look Closely – Severance – Grandee
4-45 Delta’s Royalty)
5-20 Astrogem – Saucy Encore
5-55 Silent Echo – Intisaab – Gunmetal
6-30 Dream Today – Equitation – Citron Major – Wentworth Falls
(Incidence: 24 selections in 10 races)
LINGFIELD SHORTLIST: (5.6.20)
12-55 & 1-30 NO SELECTIONS
2-05 Tomfre – Corvair – Hector Laza
2-40 Miss Yoda – West End Girl
3-15 Berkshire Rocco – Kings Caper
3-50 Romanor – Brighton Pier – Dono di Dio – Blue Media – Capone – Ilhabela Fait – Imperium – Noble Peace – Jumping Cats
4-25 In The Cove – The Game is On – Fortune and Glory – Muraahim –
Ventura Gold – Voltaic – Silver Dust – Kindergarten Kop – Hunni
5-00 Erissimus Maximus – Mamillius – Real Estate – Sword Exceed – Lapidary – Iconic Knight
5-35 Ultra Violet – Caspian Queen – Pop Dancer – National League – Mount Mogan
(Incidence: 36 selections in 7 races)
BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:
The BOZmail golden rules:
1/ Try to look where others do not.
2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)
3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)
4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.
5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.
6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).
7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.
“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.” Boz