BOZmail – 5th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY JULY 5th  2019 

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

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Second round official Wimbledon tips for Wednesday.

Margarita Gasparyan to beat Elina Svitolina @ 8/5- VOID 

Veronica Kudermetova to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 7/4 – LOST

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Second round official Wimbledon tips for Thursday

1.Petra Kvitova to beat Krystina Mladenovic @ 4/11 – WON

2.Elise Mertens to beat Monica Niculescu @ 6/19 – WON

3.Barbora Strycova to beat Laura Siegemund @ 3/13 – WON

4.Katerina Siniakova to beat Johanna Konta @ 13/5 – LOST

Day 5 Wimbledon Preview:

The Banker treble paid for the loss on Wozniacki plus a 0.1pt profit. Just watching whether Siniakova can avoid giving that back! Lost the first set but not too worried by that with her……Konta stayed solid however but I got my 0.1pt back easily with a start of second set trade as Siniakova led 2-1.

Don’t have any plays for day five other than the staggered acca second leg(see below). Decided to trust Pliskova to see off Hsieh and did consider Yastremska to beat Golubic but don’t like the price. Likewise Muchova who could beat Kontaveit against the book but not strong enough on it to want to play. Day five is about watching Cori Gauff for me! Serena is also 2-5 down as I write so there may be more outrights portfolio action on tomorrow’s sheet!

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

0.75pt LAY on SERENA WILLIAMS 

0.1pt BACK on ASH BARTY

0.1pt BACK on KAROLINA PLISKOVA

0.1pt BACK on PETRA KVITOVA

0.1pt BACK on JELENA OSTAPENKO – Eliminated

0.1pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA

0.1pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN – Eliminated

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

4-20 NEWTON ABBOT

The LIM twister will probably get put back in the drawer for another few years!

Blue Kascade was a false dawn and the favs in both races got beat although we were a tad lucky with ours who wasn’t fav on the off! Ran green. Would have won running straight. A smidgeon more profit however and it all counts. 

Had similar difficulty finding a race Friday but of the don’t particularly like any of them category and have finally settled for this Handicap Chase at Newton Abbot which is similarly as open as Thursday’s one although not sure the rag can win this!

Lord in Red has a plus in the jockey booking division but trainer on the cold list and carries another penalty for not winning LTO. Up in class as well so a lot on really but no clues this end which of the others is best placed or value to take advantage. So a simple low grade lay and keep the day focussed on the new Serena Williams! (see staggered acca below)

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on LORD IN RED (around 3.0 : no greater than 3.6)

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 120/179 = 67.03% :   BACKS: 32/119 = 26.89%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars – Entered at Sandown (July 6)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.2727 points.

Staggered acca number 13: (LEG 2)

Wimbledon third round on Friday:

Cori Gauff to beat Polona Hercog @ 5/8 – 0.2727pt WIN

Petra survived a sticky start to the first set and patiently bided her time to 4-5 down before stepping on the pedal and exposing the Mladenovic brittleness through sheer force of will. A champion’s performance and she plays likely Anisimova next in our portfolio third rounder which will be her real test. Good for SF if she survives that I’d say and I seriously look forward to a possible SF v Barty who she usually beats. That left arm looks to be holding ok.

Meanwhile we go straight to lucky 13 staggered acca leg 2 and your chance to take part in a bit of history! 15 year old Cori Gauff is basically part three in the jigsaw of new young players to depose the old guard. We’ve had Osaka on hardcourt and Barty on clay. Now we have the youngest Wimbledon qualifying winner for nearly thirty years about to make her mark on the grass. If you haven’t seen her yet, book your seat. She was 1000/1 and bigger before round one and she’s 16/1 now to go all the way. Sorry I missed tipping that! I, like most of the tennis world, have been blown away by what I’ve seen so far. Speed about the court like we’ve never seen. A thunderbolt serve and forehand from shoulders of a serious athlete and most miraculously, a champion’s mindset already seemingly fully formed. Spookily like a young Venus Williams only way better! In synch with how the game has moved on, she humbled her idol in round one.

I saw only snippets of that and sat to watch the whole game v Rybarikova (who I know well) last night and can tell you that Rybarikova – a grass specialist and former SW19 semi finalist who humbled Sabalenka first round – played her absolute best game. And was brushed aside. Gauff – a name uncannily like the last female tennis sensation Graf – was exceptional. In all departments. To have that at 15 is awesome. So endeth the open years of women’s tennis. Prepare to be dominated for a while now!

We get a free bet on her to beat Polona Hercog as our part in the history making. Watch and admire. Hercog is ranked higher than Rybarikova at the moment but is a clay courter not a grass courter. Gauff plays like in her first two, she’ll crucify her. 

I very rarely tip without back form. That’s how impressed I was. Been watching the game all my life and professionally for past twenty years and never seen anything like the Gauff speed around the court. Michael Johnson speed!

It will take a major mindset crumble for her to lose this and absolutely no sign of that so far. And although she is set to face Halep or Azarenka after this, I actually think she might go all the way and do a Sharapova. Leg 2 of our lucky thirteenth staggered acca.

Could well be an omen!

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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