BOZmail 5th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY JULY 5th  2020 

0.2pt WIN on FRANKLY DARLING @ 2/1 or better to win the Oaks – 3rd

0.1pt WIN on PYLEDRIVER @ 18/1 or better to win the Derby – LOST

0.1pt DOUBLE on FRANKLY DARLING & ENGLISH KING – LOST

0.005pt REVERSED FORECAST –  PYLEDRIVER & ENGLISH KING in the Derby

Total Spend = 0.405pts

Bit of a weird and expensive day at Epsom. Frankly Darling frankly disappointing and Pyledriver never got going in a seriously weird Derby. Did anybody see Serpentine do his dump before the off?? I couldn’t confirm it but the one horse I saw before with tail cocked was him. Certainly ran like he had a rocket up the bum. English King ran ok without ever being given chance to win. A line drawn under that!! 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.1767 points (+0.1767 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.121 points (+5.121 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.485 points (-0.515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +4.3137 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +8.6013 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 15/22 = 68.18%  Backs : 2/8 = 25%

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LESS IS MORE: 

2-25 SANDOWN

Slight change Sunday as I stay creative through this spell and pick a back to lay on a day of limited LIM qualifiers. You could forego the trading angle if you are feeling brave after yesterday because I’m quite sweet on Cross Counter for this. He hasn’t won much since his spectacular Melbourne Cup success but he’s been acquitting himself decently in the absolute top drawer staying races around the world. His comeback run at Ascot was marred by a tardy start but he ran on well enough and he still ran up to form with the impression that he would benefit from the run so ought to be primed for this. Dashing Willoughby is a horse I admire greatly but after winning on him early in his career, he has become a bogey horse since of the winning only when I leave him alone variety. I’m not convinced two miles is his distance but being nursed along in that direction and staying certainly in his pedigree. Looks held though ultimately on paper as do Withhold and Summer Moon whilst Spanish Mission has speed but also looks a doubt in the staying department to me.

Recommendation:

0.1pt BACK on CROSS COUNTER (around 3.0)

Saturday’s Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on TWAASOL (around 3.0 to be hedged when preferential odds appear and as appropriate)   

Laid @ 2.76 : Hedged 0.25pt at 4.0 before the off : P/L = + 0.1313points

That’s a trade I was proud of. Got my lay on early at 2.76 which proved the best price I was ever going to get and then worked some more on the form given that Twaasol wasn’t drifting early like I thought he might. Lots of pundits for him but plenty agreeing with me too that he had a job on his plate and the more I looked the more I judged that the market would move away from him if we waited long enough. No doubting the horse had the profile as an improver and plenty of those winning at the moment and a few pundits had swayed me a tad toward him after reading their arguments so that I was starting to feel pretty 50-50 about the result but already had my low lay in the bag and was watching it settling around 2.96 for much of the morning. I was ready to snatch a hedge out if they started coming for him but I still felt the doubters might hold sway the more like me they looked at the Burrows stable form and just one run as a negative. That critical ten minutes before the off again. I held my nerve waiting for it watching all the time of course. You really can’t afford to not be doing that on a play like this. Or any trade that you want to do a really good job on. The only time to relax is when you are greened out.

Even though I was confident the drift would come, I hadn’t expected 4.0 and it actually went as far as 4.5 before the off. Well done if you got that. My play was pretty 50-50 balanced with a slight plus for him to win which was accidental in the heat of the moment. If I’d been razor sharp with my maths I’d have levelled at 50-50 but I’d decided 0.1pt win on him getting beat was what I was happy with and thus settled at 0.25pt for my back once the landmark 4.0 was reached. That all happens very fast of course and you do have to remain focussed and sharp brained. Hoping you are starting to get there now. I’ve been practising this sort of thing for sixteen years now and am still improving. This was one of my better plays. The result is irrelevant but of course I always get a buzz from winning well out of one I got wrong. That’s what sells the trading argument to me right enough. All the time now if I’m not bullish about the bet of the day.  Haven’t been bullish about one since March! 

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling 

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Windsor (July 6) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Sharp Reply

Waseem Faris

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

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THE BOZ’s LIST OF NH TRAINERS COMING BACK FROM LOCKDOWN IN RUDE HEALTH (observed on opening day at Southwell)

Olly Murphy

Ben Pauling

Tom Lacey

Nicky Martin

Harry Whittington

Paul Nicholls

Michael Scudamore

Jamie Snowden

Fergal O’Brien

Oliver Sherwood

THOSE NOT FIRING:

Dan Skelton

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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