BOZmail – 5th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY JANUARY 5th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

12-25 NEWCASTLE

Back to a good race read but backing the wrong one again but my thirteenth consecutive nap landed. How long can it go on? The race was a classic LIM a la BOZ really where my strength as an identifier of lays was highlighted but my comparative weakness at picking winners also shown. I mentioned the stamp of a chaser about Rio Quinto but chose the champion jockey factor instead. And to be fair Johnson gave it a sterling ride on a horse not in love with the chasing game. Lovenormoney won’t be going on my list of chasers to follow! Rio Quinto might.

On to a slightly better set of cards on Saturday but still a difficult early January feel to things with the Wincanton fare very trappy and Sandown – whilst having some quality to share – saddled with LIM qualifying races that are difficult to oppose the favourites in. I had a crack at Laurina with a view to starting a staggered lay acca if I could justify it but nah. Favourite will cake it with its back legs tied together!

I read an article today by a Betting School colleague that promoted the idea of value in backing favourites that made my blood run cold but have to admit that if that is what floats your boat, January is the time for it. The Boz however sticks to his guns of seeking out the one that won’t win if he can and for that on Saturday I go novice chasing again at Newcastle.

I’m starting writing this race read with only the very early Racing Post tissue forecast to hand but they make Ravenhill Road a short 5/4 fav and if that’s the case, we’ll take that on. May well be revised by the time the bookmaker prices come through so I’ll save my recommended until I see those but of the main two, I’d much rather be with Cool Mix. Only a head between them when they met LTO over course and distance on same ground at same terms and although Ravenhill Road broke a blood vessel that day and overturned previous form with Hawk High at revised weights in finishing third, I see both of those as reason to oppose Ravenhill Road again if he’s short priced fav. Made a bad jumping error when beaten by Hawk High initially and jumped erratically again behind Cool Mix so I’m not enamoured by those as reasons to make him short price fav nor do I consider that he can necessarily reverse form with Cool Mix on same terms. Cool Mix’s previous run at Kelso was in better class where he was only beaten by a horse to whom he conceded lumps of weight and times and ratings suggest to me that Cool Mix is the better proposition to which you can add that Brian Ellison is a stable very much on the cold list at the moment so I couldn’t be having Ravenhill Road at 5/4.

Add in the top two in the weights who both have case for beating Ravenhill despite the weight concession. Hawk High’s team know they can take him if he jumps poorly again and Reverend Cust has a big chance on the form of his debut win over fences at Catterick. He jumped impressively that day and looked a strong chasing type who disappointed NTO up in class and over further but could easily be forgiven for that. His chase win was over 2m 3f and you could argue he’d want further but he has course and distance winning form here as a hurdler on heavy and ground will be testing again tomorrow and his stamina and experience over fences might make him the value play.

The Boz however moves back to just laying the fav and is happy to take on Ravenhill Road at anything shy of 2/1 and maybe even at a little higher.

 

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on RAVENHILL ROAD

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 27.5/33 = 83.33% :   BACKS: 4/20 = 20%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 14.75 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

 

Nothing doing here at the moment whilst I ponder the next step.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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