BOZmail – 5th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 5th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.539 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.049 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at

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LESS IS MORE: Wednesday play

NO BET DAY

Hands up those who laid Len Brennan on Tuesday despite his never being available at 4.0 or less (I’ve had a few emailing in and apologising for laying it outside the parameter!). He did get backed down again before the off from as high as 9.0 to just over 5.0 so he wasn’t an impossible play. He was a trade for those of you getting your head round what trading is. At 8/1 he was also arguably a back! Anyone go down that road and the hedge back before the off as the price dwindled?

Hands up if you backed the Evander/McFabulous win double instead. One of the reasons I don’t play later January on LIM now is the preponderance of winning favs this time of year. Statistically occurs every year. Does carry over into early February as well hence my having been cautious so far – liking taking on favs as I do. 

Hands up those who called Tuesday a no bet day.

That’s what I did in the end and will register on here but all three ways to go were good interpretations of my race reads from yesterday (both of which were spot on) and those that did either or both of the first two thus score better than me!

That’s how it goes. I was quite confident Len Brennan wouldn’t win but 9.0 was what I call a silly price just in case you want example of what that is. Never lay those even when I sound mega confident it won’t win. This is horse racing. All things are possible. Don’t take risks you don’t need to take. But at 5.1 or so I was tempted. Nearly had a reduced stake/same liability play but didn’t in the end. Had settled on a no play day in my head. Nothing wrong with one of them after three winning days.

Well done if you did play either of the winning ways and never apologise for that. Its why our banks and scores will never be totally the same. We make our own decisions and shape our own plays. From the same source. That’s enough for me to help me guage staking advice levels. So long as we are all working from around the position I show and publish on the sheet and no worse. If you are doing loads better, I’ll let you work your own reinvestment staking levels out! I’ll keep with the mean average based on what is showing on the sheet.

So yes, favourites win a lot this time of year and all five LIM qualifying races for Wednesday come up on my race reads as likely successes for the favourite so I call another LIM NO BET day for Wednesday. Never any point forcing a play and I have had a look at taking second favs on in all races too but that is never ideal either as we saw on Tuesday. They can easily and quickly become no plays if price drifts so patience called for and we’ll sit Wednesday out. Much more promising cards on show for Thursday.

Rather than call a consecutive complete sheet no play however I introduce the occasional acca element that is already in evidence with my Cheltenham offering and will rear its head every time I see a potential acca opportunity.Accas is my other betting thing. Not every day. And only when it looks a way to biggish return from very little outlay.

Which is how I see tomorrow’s LIM qualifiers. Four of the five are very strong favs chances and the five as an acca comes to around 35/1 so for very small stake we can have an interest. You can ignore if it ain’t your thing but for those not keen on sitting around all day twiddling their thumbs or love the excitement of keep checking through the day to see how the next leg has done, you may like to join me. Its what I intend to play on Wednesday. I detail the bet below.

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 3/3 = 100%  Backs: 0/0

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Huntingdon (Feb 6)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – Entered at Huntingdon (Feb 6)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Mares Hurdle Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Saint De Reve

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OCCASIONAL ACCA FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 5th:

1-30 SOUTHWELL – MULZIM @ 11/8

2-0 SOUTHWELL – LADYLEYS BELUGA @ 10/11

2-15 LUDLOW – PAINT THE DREAM @ 4/6

3-30 SOUTHWELL – MOSAKHAR @ 13/8

4-30 SOUTHWELL – ARABIAN KING @ 4/6

= odds of 33.86 at those prices.

0.01pt WIN ACCUMULATOR and if you back with BETFAIR Sportsbook and get offered the acca edge which is slightly reduced returns in the event of one leg going down that’s usually good value. You will also of course be offered cash out after each successful leg with most bookmakers so that if any kind of profit is your aim, that’s always worth considering. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted.

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. 

The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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