BOZmail – 5th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the two week trial of the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 5th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

1-20 HAYDOCK

 

Well, the market did not agree with me on Tuesday (except in the fact that the ground might be trouble for DawnieRiver which it was – well done if you missed out the back on the strength of that and even better well done if you moved to a back on the winner. I did neither!)

but the Hoo Bally Diva backers had their fingers burnt as he hated the ground and was the first one beaten. Dead ground to my reading and always a bit of a grim stat for me as it skews a lot of form reading and I think maybe we were a tad lucky to collect there in view of how it becomes an unknown which horses will act on it and which won’t. So many don’t. I tried for a couple of years to keep stats on horses that hated it but it was a vast job and the accuracy was always being called into question. Not always possible to define dead ground from TV watching (although I had mastered it at my key track of Fontwell – and then they went and put an all weather segment in which mucked up all the stats!) so it remains a thorny issue for tipping winter jumping whenever there is frost about but I do have my counter strategies which help and opposing unproven novices in handicaps is one of those and is what saved us on Tuesday. Hoo Bally did indeed jump like a novice!

On to Wednesday and another potentially testing day as four races qualified for LIM and I actually like all four so narrowing down has been tough. An important part of my discipline however and to Haydock I have trekked. The 1-55 is a fascinating race and should be watched because of the presence of Noble Warrior who is the sighter for the Moffatt entry in the Becher on Saturday. Same owner (new to the yard as far as I can see) and supplier of a rare winner for the stable in 2018 when he won on debut at Uttoxeter courtesy of the 1/16 favourite tipping up in a 3 runner race! Noble Warrior was going ok at the time and no way of knowing what might have happened and has nothing else to beat but this race is a teaser and he is one of four dark horse contenders in it to take the Tom George horse on with. On balance however, although I may trade in the race, I have rejected it for LIM and am using it as my said sighter as to whether I play strong in the Becher on Saturday or not. George’s horse does look strong and with alternatives on the day, not thus an LIM race but I do like the look of the Hobbs French import in the line up too so I will be watching keenly for future reference. And Noble Warrior is not a no hoper at a distance he should relish on breeding.

The 1-20 is probably a two horse race and I seriously prefer Mr Whipped who holds Knockrobin through Count Meribel and could have beaten the latter on chase debut at HQ but for a skewed leap at the last. Quick hurdler and winner of group race – ought to have too much speed getting weight from the penalised Springtown Lake and may just need to jump to win. Springtown Lake does look a chasing type mind and has the benefit of the champ in the saddle should it be a driving finish. When I said on Saturday that the Henderson yard was suffering a malaise however, I couldn’t have been more wrong as he banged in six winners from eight runners. Felt proud to have laid a loser!

Nico might sail past on this one and although there are negatives in the jockey match up and the fact that neither Hobbs nor Henderson have particularly cosy stats at Haydock, I do think the speed and weight difference should seal it and so am going for a mid range lay on Springtown Lake as my play of the day.  

 

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on SPRINGTOWN LAKE

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 3/4 = 75%

                                          BACKS: 1/3 = 33.33%

 

**************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one. So 0.45pts returned to bank which is retained at 10 points thanks to superb never say die from Redditch again for second time in a week!)

 

STAGGERED FOOTBALL ACCA for SATURDAY December 1st:

FIRST LEG:

Southern League Central Division:

Redditch to beat Kings Lynn @ 9/5 or better – 0.25 pts

Redditch-Kings Lynn draw @ 29/10 or better – 0.2 pts – WON

 

We will start the second leg – free bet – stage of the staggered acca with a stake of 0.33pts (Saturday’s winnings). Watch this space for the advice as it emerges. May be next Saturday’s Redditch match at St Neots but could also be something else that emerges sooner or something later if the St Neots fixture is deemed not weapons grade after careful study during the week.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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