BOZmail 5th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY DECEMBER 5th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 117/165 = 70.90%  Backs : 33/102 = 32.35%

1-50 SANDOWN

Picked the wrong race on Friday having been fairly keen to take on The Big Breakfast at crazy short odds after the Doc Penfro form proved dodgy. The one I chose was ruined by the defections but still fairly wrong and I’ve wrestled with a similar dilemma for Saturday with two races between which I am seriously torn. This and the 11-45 at Aintree which will in any case be a trade play.

Having three to follows in one race presents hassle also and all may play second fiddle if Allmankind is as good as the Skelton’s tout. Certainly jumped like a buck at Warwick and I won’t want to be taking massive liability on him. I do however think Hitman is a worthy opponent if his jumping stands up and the value is Ga Law who has been a revelation this season and looks set to continue for connections.

So I play my three in a small reversed forecast to lower the Skelton colours and take Ga Law as a single value bet against the talking horse.

No huge confidence I’ve got it right though so staking caution very much in evidence.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on ALLMANKIND (around 3.0)

0.05pt BACK on GA LAW (around 7.0)

0.01pt COMBINATION FORECAST – GA LAW,HITMAN & ELDORADO ALLEN 

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly – Entered for Kelso (Dec 6)

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) – Entered for Hexham (Dec 9)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Hexham (Dec 9)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill 

Al Dancer – Entered for Huntingdon(Dec 6)Cheltenham(Dec 12)&KingGeorge(Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen – Entered For  Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Huntingdon (Dec 6) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

Hitman – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 16)

First Flow – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

Pepper Street 

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on FRIDAY:

12-35 SEDGEFIELD – PEPPER STREET @ 20/1 – 0.1pt BACK 

Backed @ 44.0 : hedged in running @ 22.0 : P/L = 0

12-55 EXETER – BOOTHILL @ 3/1 – 0.1pt BACK – NON RUNNER

Weather took a serious turn for the worse up at Sedgefield and the prices made a free bet trade the easy and sensible way to play Pepper Street who ran ok but never really showed. The shortlist had an difficult start which flagged up how bad the conditions became. Boothill a non runner so no success but no damage done either. Onwards.

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

11-45 AINTREE – Straw Fan Jack @ 7/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are on offer.

Horse I like and the booking of Richard Johnson encouraging with the Sheila Lewis stable still in fine fettle. Hot race though and the favourite’s bumper form although achieved at Sedgefield does look tasty. If he jumps, might be hard to beat. So I go down the trade route maybe leaving some for hedging in play as I do expect a competitive run. I will also be leaving some scope for playing the 1.1 and 1.01 lay options at the finish.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +51.5057points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.4068 points (+12.4068 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 49.0394 points (+41.0394 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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