BOZmail 5th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY AUGUST 5th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 21.3555 points (+1.3555 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.6153 points (+6.6153 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.23 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +6.6568 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.9444 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 36/46 = 78.26%  Backs : 5/19 = 26.31%

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LESS IS MORE:

4-25 NEWTON ABBOT

Decent race read on Tuesday (I got the race before it correct as a double lay too) and could have got a triple lay with Jimmy Rabbitte disappointing again. So the stake on Malangen was overly cautious but that’s hindsight talking and more pertinent is the decision to wait for NH racing in August vindicated and part of a strategy to get the month off to a bob on start now I’ve got a feel again. That requires backing up in this race of course and not much to choose from still so I stay stake cautious for one day more just to see if I really have got a handle on things now. We have a right go at August if I do.

Rain getting into the ground will help the cause of Peterborough who tries to defy the 7lb penalty accrued for his win at Stratford LTO in a race that Wisecracker should have won and the form in general has not been overly boosted. Peterborough himself was punted and showed improved form but questionable whether he will be able to back that up and a very short price to do so at 5/4. I’ll take that on.

Kiruna Peak is inexperienced but has a chance on the figures and acts as cover as I fancy a punt on a couple of outsiders with very differing profiles. Chance It is out of the handicap and also has little and not distinguished chase experience but gets nigh on 2 stone off Peterborough and that warm up effort over hurdles LTO reads quite well. A punt but a worthy one. Likewise No No Cardinal who comes from the other end of the experience spectrum and needs to re-find form but is on a mark and has had a couple of warm up efforts and is value at 14/1. Significant rain not overly good news for either of the backs which should be born in mind. Proceed if the ground stays on the good side. Profit protection day if it is bucketing down with rain and the ground has gone good to soft. Might be worth going to trading the picks if that happens.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on PETERBOROUGH (around 2.3 and as low as you can get)

0.05pt BACK on NO NO CARDINAL (around 15.0)

0.025pt BACK on CHANCE IT (around 8.0)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Malotru 

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat – Entered at Stratford (Aug 6)

Beholden – Entered at Stratford (Aug 6)

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

OCCASIONAL ACCA ON WEDNESDAY’S TO FOLLOW HORSES

1-45 NEWTON ABBOT – HICONIC @ 11/10

3-50 NEWTON ABBOT – SOLDIER OF LOVE @ 4/5

0.1pt WIN DOUBLE

Only modest staking again as it is difficult to be bullish about either and prices aren’t good despite both having a favourite’s chance. Both were impressive LTO and Soldier of Love is warming to the game and learning to jump gradually. He got a great ride LTO after Harry was declared sick and Bryony stood in. She was patient with him and forgave early sloppy jumps. Gone up a hike as a result but the main opposition here is likely to be ring rusty and he could just outclass. Hiconic is in a total guesswork race but is simply a horse to keep backing until it loses. 

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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