BOZmail 4th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 4th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +13.9602 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.598 points (+4.598 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 18.5177 points (+10.5177 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9935 points (-0.0065 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 75/106 = 70.75%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

NO BET

“To my eye,looks a September effort again…..” is what I wrote about Friday’s LIM at Sedgefield before I knew I’d got Thursday’s one wrong. And very wrong. And it was that penalty carrier again. Staple part of LIM diet but all my stats show that whilst I’m always vulnerable to one of those going in, I become doubly so in September and it is how I have racked up minus scores in September in the past. Friday’s was another from the only qualifying LIM of the day again and I’ve scrubbed out what I wrote and decided to stick to that tennis instead strategy. Thursday’s was so wrong with Bannixtown jumping well below par but the race simply having none of the on paper openness I’d given it. LIM does depend on me narrowing down to the best available play on the day for its long term accuracy but so many days in 2020 have been a case of just doing my best to read the only possible play of the day that it was sure to be a struggle. And I’m still ahead and inclined to defend that position stoically by exercising the most important gambling trait of them all. Discipline.

So I may sit September out after all. That was the plan. Of course I do have the tennis and I also have the possibility of finding the odd good one if I keep looking. And staying strong and staying out when the vibes aren’t good. That seems the best way forward for now. 

Done quite a bit of work on the tennis for Friday to compensate and will do likewise for Saturday and sit tight with LIM for a while now until a day comes up when my pick is a confident one. There is a To Follow trade at Sedgefield too (see below). Not too excited about that though either!

Recommendation:

Friday’s selected play cancelled.

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE AT SALISBURY on THURSDAY:

3-10 – ALICESTAR @ 25/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 37.0 : Hedged 0.2pt @ 10.0 (in running) : P/L = +0.098points

Was pleased with the 37.0 although a few of you noted getting on in the 40s after the non runner declaration.Good effort. I decided to go in running after further study and noting jockey booking as I thought maybe the fancied runners would struggle in the dampening ground. It was a big step up in class for Alice but she took it quite well I thought. My 10.0 marker matched and went as low as 8.0. I had a 2.0 marker also in place but that was never threatened. Still a bit green but finds for asking and should stay on the list for that. 5th was a decent effort first time in a black type race. More to come.

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf – Entered at Stratford (Sep 5)

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture – Entered at Newton Abbot (Sep 8)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE RUNNING on FRIDAY:

5-00 SEDGEFIELD – LORD CONDI @9/2 -0.15pt BACK 

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and as preferential odds are offered.

Very much a trade this with doubt cast over his effort LTO and goes off the list if not showing anything here. Just aiming to get the back hedged as a free bet and not expecting much more from this to be honest although price you can get may well be longer than tissue quote above so usual work to get best price you can.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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US OPEN report DAY THREE/FOUR:

Workmanlike but Kerber won well. Stephens not played as I write but I press on now with third round – Friday day and night – bets. Three match plays and I’m also ready now to start my outright portfolio. Down to the last sixteen in the top half of the draw and still some juicy prices on outsiders that we can avail ourselves of. More on that below.

THIRD ROUND MATCH BETS FROM THE TOP HALF OF THE DRAW – FRIDAY:

Banker : Yulia Putintseva to beat Aliksandra Sasnovich @ 1.86 – 0.1pt BACK

Value : Madison Brengle to beat Shelby Rogers @ 2.92 – 0.05pt BACK

Outsider : Magda Linette to beat Anett Kontaveit @ 5.0 – 0.05pt BACK

None of these are certainties like the first round acca but Putintseva has a strong back score v Sasnovich and can usually be relied on to play her game. I use her as my core and will play doubles with her and the other two (0.01pt). Brengle v Rogers is very 50-50 with Madison having the slight edge on back score and her price is undoubtedly value. Rogers is a scrapper however and no surprise if she prevails so I may well be trading this one depending on what I see first few games (and if I’m still awake!). Likewise a trade on Linette who is an old warhorse now but a surprising player on her day with the ability on past scores to outdo big-hitting Kontaveit who is a heart on her sleeve player who gets very emotional and can disappear from matches when things are going against her. Wouldn’t back her at 1.23 in this with washers even though she is the younger,stronger and more highly ranked. She could blitz it but at the prices I go the other way and also have Linette in a small double (0.01pt) with Putintseva.

Total Match Bet spend = 0.22pts

OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

I saved us a few quid waiting on Osaka who was as big as 14.0 to lay during that first round tussle with Doi and who massacred Giorgi last night (as you’d expect her to on song) with her leg heavily strapped and not moving around much again. Her price in to 5.4 as a result and she can be laid at that I think although it does also come with risks because she is lethal on this surface when on song and this half of the draw did collapse a bit last night with the exit of number one seed Karolina Pliskova with seeded Vondrousova,Rybakina and Riske also exiting. Alison Riske lost 0-6 3-6 to Ann Li and I don’t even know who Ann Li is! A 20 year old American and no doubt with a name like that under any other president they’d be championing her as the new young Yankee to take the world by storm. Mr Trump keeping a noticeably tight lip! I didn’t see the match so Riske may have had injury issues but even with them, Li can play to get a score like that against an in form Riske for whom this is very much her surface. Li is 330 on the outrights and I wouldn’t put you off although as I say, I can give you no clues yet. She plays former champion Kerber next and if she wins that, we certainly get interested! I’ve bookmarked to watch that match Friday night. Alarm clock at the ready!

The outrights portfolio is all about trying to land the three figure monster winner should one occur although it also comes with the usual BOZ hedging and trading aspects so that even if we don’t find the winner, we still don’t lose anything (or very little in worst case scenario).And sometimes – in fact very often – win small. If you like collecting all the dosh from your 100/1 winners, this way to play probably ain’t for you (and I’ve had six three figure slam winners in the past ten years of playing this way – but collected less than 100 points win on all of them) and only three losing scores in that stretch of just under 40 slams. You’ll be familiar with that being my way now. The way it works here is that once you are in on any player, back or lay, you gotta be ready to hedge in play in all their matches from therein. Markers can be left but of course can’t be relied on. You really need to be watching live in play so it is quite a time commitment and you gotta like watching women’s tennis which of course I do! These advices are very much professional trades and you can lose hefty if you stake at my levels and then don’t attempt hedging whenever it becomes available. Betfair outright market stays live whenever matches are on so hedging always possible during matches and even Serena Williams matches have yoyo moments.I have specialised in her being my lay for most tournaments in that ten year stretch and usually get chance to hedge her at some point so that I’m on her if she goes on to win as she has quite a lot of course. Two of my three losers are down to her (one in the London Olympics where she never put a foot wrong throughout the entire tournament) but I’m up on her overall and of course the lay on her has facilitated all six big winners. All six were free or greened out bets by finals time. That’s the way I play. It’s serious stuff but I don’t usually go all out at the US Open. Time difference is one thing but surface is another. My one big loser is here on Kim Clijsters in whatever year it was she came back from her baby to win without dropping a set. Laid her at 13.0 and never got a chance to hedge. So it can happen. Only play this way if you can handle a result like that once every ten years! I do have an overall ten year plus at the US Open because I also backed Flavia Pennetta at 220 (hedged) the year she won. Got all my Clijsters loss back that day.

So now you know and here’s my 2020 US OPEN outrights play. It went live early Thursday morning. And I work on it non stop now until finals day next Saturday. Prices are all those I obtained. You of course have the usual caveat for your own effort if you do play. As always, get the best price you can. Hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

1pt LAY on NAOMI OSAKA @ 5.4 

0.5pt LAY on PETRA KVITOVA @ 12.0

Both of these can’t win obviously so already they are some liability reduction cover for each other. I’m not laying Serena this year as I seriously think she will be pulling out all the stops now as her last chance scenario for the record breaking slam victory. US Open is one she often gets very upset in if the crowd don’t support her and she has lost finals to Osaka and Clijsters (semi that and don’t I know that one!) here on that score. She is not the player she was any more but I fear her this year with no crowds in to upset her. My read is that she has no excuses for coming out of the bubble now. When she’s in it, she still can’t be touched and I’d fancy her in finals v Osaka or Kvitova if she gets there. One of those two goes out QFs at latest but Kvitova is vulnerable before then to the winner of the Brengle v Rogers match. Both those Americans have plus scores against both Kvitova and Osaka (Rogers is 3-0 v Osaka!!) and although they are historical and Osaka was only 15 for a couple of them, they are not to be sniffed at. Head to head back scores are very influential in women’s tennis (and men’s tennis too) especially in slam events where you can guarantee all players are trying 100%. There is the mental aspect of knowing you can outplay the opponent but also the physical which also manifests itself. Osaka would have known she could beat Giorgi last night because it is prime surface for both but Osaka is a world class champion and Giorgi a middling also ran. Osaka can hit through her. That won’t change for either player now. Only injury leads to Giorgi beating Osaka in a slam. Or, as we say about Serena, Osaka beats herself. And that is very possible always with most women players. Osaka went 18 months not beating anybody until 2020 started. She can be mentally frail. Not at the moment though. The race issue in America at the moment has her very focussed. She wants Trump gone as much as anybody!!

Osaka’s SF opponent if form prevails would be Kerber and she is very vulnerable to a fit Kerber who has a 2-0 back score. Serena is 1-2 v Osaka but that is actually a positive because it was 0-2 initially when Osaka burst through but Serena played a dynamite against her in their third match up. Serena does not like being down to anyone!! She’ll want that score evened to 2-2 if she gets chance in the final.

Osaka would beat Kvitova on this surface most games and Kvitova is a very unlikely outright winner on hard court. She did make Oz final and arguably is improving on it still but grass is her thing. It allows her to serve dominate. On slower surfaces, her height works against her. She has trouble getting consistently down low in general and the opponents know that. Kvitova generally cannot dominate games when her serve is returnable and on hard it is. She is a very unlikely outright winner here although I’ll still be hedging live in play as and when I get chance! She has the Rogers/Brengle factor to get past first.

And they are my first portfolio back posts:

0.1pt BACK on SHELBY ROGERS @ 110.0

0.1pt BACK on MADISON BRENGLE @ 200.0

And I look to hedge both in their match against each other of course. That’s how it works. You hedge all bets once preferential odds are on offer. Could be a very tight one that but as well as their back scores against Kvitova and Osaka, the Amercians are both surface specialists (so of course is Osaka) and more pertinently, Americans always do well in the US Open.Two years back now when all four semi finalists were American. Could happen again this year with Brady and Li both possibles to play Osaka in the semis. Either Brengle or Rogers also a possible semi. I might just mention also that Brengle is 28.0 to win the second quarter. So beating Rogers then Kvitova then Osaka to make her first semi final. I’ve followed Brengle for years and saw her at Edgbaston one year. She is a middle ranker but very honest and gutsy and doesn’t in general suffer from the battle freeze that so many have to fight really hard to overcome. She has had her Goliath moments and on her day is a tough opponent to anyone. When she is hitting the lines as Pliskova failed as number one seed so to do yesterday. You have to hit your lines! 28.0 to make semis is value on Brengle.

Just one other small play in the BACK part of the portfolio at this stage. From the other half of the draw.

0.05pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK @ 70.0

She’s my current candidate for young player sure to win a slam sometime. Plays Vickery tonight which isn’t a gimme and Vickery is American. Don’t know how much that matters with no crowds in. Probably less but I still say more so in Serena’s case! Half the American crowd always gets on her back. I’ll be watching this ready to hedge if Swiatek takes an early lead. She’s probably still too early for her breakthrough yet and that may ultimately come on grass. Does also have occasional – not freezes – but more teenage angst moments. Threw one away in the 4th round at OZ (her furthest in a slam so far) through petulance more than anything. Needs to conquer that and still learning. But a raw talent and they do win slams early sometimes.

US OPEN TRADES: +0.115 points

US OPEN ACCAS: +0.4385 points

US OPEN TOURNAMENT SCORE AFTER ROUND ONE: +0.5535 points

SECOND ROUND BANKER ACCA:

Angelique Kerber to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam @ 1.3 – WON

Sloane Stephens to beat Olga Govortsova @ 1.7

BOZ

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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