BOZmail – 4th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY OCTOBER 4th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.5647 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.812 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY 

4-45 FONTWELL

Hands up if you decided to have a bit bigger lay on Ballymoy when you saw it was 4/6 on? Did you back the winner or any of the others aswell? Pat on the back if you did because it shows you are reading what I post and making some decisions yourself when conditions change. That was a hot race. And the crucial factor was that Ballymoy is a Flemensfirth so to win that he had to jump impeccably on his debut. Very few talented hurdlers do that. His price went way too short. The Twisty overbet factor again. Always worth keeping in mind. Price is everything when you bet horses. That can never be stressed enough.

Nube Negra was the one that had been schooled best. No surprise when you look at his stable. And Commanche Red ran the blinder that allowed Ballymoy to get beat by taking him on early and putting pressure on his jumping. I actually think Ballymoy ran a cracker and surely ought to be followed for later in the season. When the Twisty overbet factor is off. Real class and made a fist of it despite the two ballooning novicy jumps half way round. On a day when the Boz has been researching his new to follow lists, both the front two made it on. Equus Amadeus sadly looks to be in need of a return to hurdles!

On to Friday at Fontwell and a shortlist day for those following that. LIM philosophy being applied to it as well now to reduce the incidence right down and take it away from its old purpose of beating the Betfair through the card permed acca.

Nap race on here is the penultimate although there are plenty of opportunities for taking favourites on in this card and the shortlist will deal with that in more detail.

My nap is to take on Neil Mulholland’s fav with one of his own. He runs three in the race and Soupy Soups has a penalty to carry and drops back in distance which does make him vulnerable I’d say. Walt would be the clear best of the three based on his black type success at Kempton in February and is back around that winning mark now, has a useful claimer on board in Harry Reed and has had a cobweb blowing away run last month. He has been running in much better grade than this if you take away his last two – an end of season over the top run and a new season cobweb blower – so he can be expected to arrive in shape from a stable in super form and is thus value at 9/1.

The actual best horse in the race is Tea for Two who may well fire fresh after a wind op and is excellent LIM cover. You wouldn’t rule Mellow Ben or Kentford Heiress out entirely either. Good race to play in at the prices I’d say. 

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on SOUPY SOUPS (around 2.7 : no greater than 2.96)

0.15pt BACK on WALT (around 10.0)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 165/254 = 64.96% :   BACKS: 48/171 = 28.07%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered for Kelso (Oct 6) 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered for Ascot (Oct 5)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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