BOZmail 4th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

SUNDAY OCTOBER 4th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +27.9698 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.7701 points (+5.7701 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 31.3852 points (+23.3852 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 84/117 = 71.79%  Backs : 22/72 = 30.55%

2-30 KELSO

Not a race I’m wild about again but only day’s qualifier and one of those races where anyone can lose rather than anyone can win! Plantagenet is the tissue fav and looks very modest and ordinary albeit with a decent run LTO. Has to give lumps of weight to in form Damien’s Dilemma and Shanroe Street who might prefer softer ground but is a dark horse and might anyway get the softer ground on the day. Blue Kascade probably struggles at the distance and is a 13 year old now but the stable boast red hot form and he looks a short price suggesting the word might be out for him. Stay Humble is the inexperienced novice but unexposed with potential for the future and the best jockey up. Anybody’s race and I thus play the market and wait for better fare in the day’s ahead.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on PLANTAGENET (around 3.0)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY EIGHT)

All about shouting home Garcia and Swiatek. Both have to produce their best to win but what it’s all about. The crowd in the Garcia match could easily be rowdy! Have fun if you intend to trade them. I’m having a sit out and watch day, my colours very much nailed to the floor!

Day Seven Third Round Banker Acca:

Garbine Muguruza to beat Danielle Collins @ 1.28

Sofia Kenin to beat Irina Bara @ 1.44 – WON

Petra Martic to beat Laura Siegemund @ 1.53 – LOST

Shuai Zhang to beat Clara Burel @ 1.42 – WON

0.1pt FOUR TIMER to return 0.4004 points – LOST

Martic disgraced herself after having the match in her control and just chucking in the towel after a gruelling encounter.Last time I trust her! Lost nine games on the bounce. Joined Tig with an inexplicable 0-6 final set. That’s women’s tennis for you! Does make you wonder sometimes!

Outrights Portfolio:

0.1pt BACK Patricia MariaTig@ 450.0 Hedged 0.1pt @250.0 & 0.1pt@80.0  Eliminated

0.05pt BACK Caroline Garcia @ 80.0 (+3.925) Hedged 0.05pt @ 40.0 (+2.075)

0.05pt BACK Iga Swiatek @ 24.0  (+1.275)

0.05pt BACK Amanda Anisimova @ 40.0  Hedged 0.05pt @ 32.0 – Eliminated

0.3pt LAY on Simona Halep @ 3.2 Hedged 0.275pt @ 4.2  (+0.27)

REST OF THE FIELD (+0.075)

Who was dedicated to duty and doing the market watch during the Ferro v Tig encounter? If it was you, you will have seen £38 matched on Betfair at the outright price on Tig of 4.1!! This was presumably someone getting mixed up between match price and outright price and it was on the exchange just for seconds as the match  started and sadly I wasn’t quick enough to take advantage. Maybe you were though! Well done if you hedged at that!! Steal of the century. The match was a very feisty partisan crowd affair. Typical intimidating French followers rooting for their player and being rude and disrespectful to the ‘foreigner’. Tig got some dodgy line calls as well but started excellently and got me my genuine hedge @ 80.0 in a flip-flopping first few games meaning I have now comfortably greened out. Take a breather now with time to think about how I might maximise profit from here in relation to the remaining draw and games. More thoughts on that in next few days.

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required this time!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.4pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.2141pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon – Entered @ Southwell (Oct 6)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered @ Sedgefield (Oct 7)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

3-30 KELSO – RETURN TICKET @ 10/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

Waiting for his return to a flat track before having a straight back on him but definitely a to follow as he’ll pop in one day. This is an up in class on an undulating track so is presumably making do with the restrictions time again and keeping him running and gaining experience. Jumping does still need practice. Safe trade though. Bound to be offered hedge rates. Get the best price you can.

3-16 UTTOXETER – SIROBBIE @ 6/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

Very competitive race back over hurdles. Decent each way chance but the safe play again is the trade which does it for me. Want to back him when chasing really in a less competitive race.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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