BOZmail – 4th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY MAY 4th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

6-35 HEXHAM

Getting grim now. Worse than the last four day losing run. No excuses with any of these and not enough caution.Buveur D’air tended to win by default which is something I must watch for at all times and especially now. Time for battening down the hatches. And changing the tactic again.

Time to up the back stake on a horse I have been waiting to see. Endless Credit is a Hexham specialist and was primed with his run at Carlisle LTO and is best handicapped in the field to take advantage. Might be also worth taking early price as not only us will be betting it. I perceived the stable coming to the boil over Easter. Not had that many runners since but all running to their form and these two we’ve been waiting for look likely to provide one winner at least if jumping holds up.

I pay for the bet with a lay on Manamite who struggled badly with penalty LTO and tries again here in same grade and must jump better giving weight all round again and only a two pound weight respite. Has to give Endless Credit over a stone and although both are Hexham horses, I rate that a tall order for the fav whose times are only comparable so that the weight difference ought to be a decider. This is an easier race than last time so improvement would put him in with a chance but serious improvement in jumping from LTO will be required and I would think the pace might well catch him out again here at this stiff track.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on MANAMITE (around 3.3 : no greater than 3.6)

0.2pt BACK on ENDLESS CREDIT @ 9/2 or better

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 96/137 = 70.07% :   BACKS: 22/87 = 25.28%

TO FOLLOW HORSES TO TRADE ON SATURDAY:

8-35 HEXHAM – OPECHEE

Can’t say I’m enamoured with the price on Opechee at 15/8 in places. His jumping will have to improve.He is well in and well primed however so long as LTO at market rasen wasn’t his peak target race.Gavin Sheehan sticks with him and he ran on well LTO.

These are just advices coming off my to follow list and I won’t be counting them on the sheet score so up to you whether you play them. If you do, the play looks to be taking a back at a standout 11/2 with BET 365 as I write to hedgeback on the exchanges at an expected much lower price to bank a profit whatever the result.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit

Opechee – Entered for Ayr (May 7)

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Rocket Action – Entered for Hamilton (May 5)

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby (June 29)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.544 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 2)

 I will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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