BOZmail – 4th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY MARCH 4th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.5526 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.7991 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Wednesday play

7-15 KEMPTON

Weather still affecting things and February score undoubtedly in that category so I’m conscious of the fact that you did well if you got out with a plus LIM score and treading cautiously for a while longer as we navigate this early March week before Cheltenham period. Likely to be masses of activity next week so important to stay tight in the lead up and make sure we go into the opportunities that Cheltenham week affords (including some BOZmail rule number one plays as a rule at the away meetings) with some plus and not chasing our tails. My main meeting of the day at Fontwell has fallen foul and so I stay on the all weather and take on a shorty again in Balding’s Berlin Tango – as short as 8/11 in some places as I write.

I actually have it pretty tight between the front three and Chares and New World Tapestry winning the times comparisons. O’Brien’s entry must therefore be of interest.

Wouldn’t be often the Ballydoyle maestro sends one to Kempton and with Ryan Moore riding, 3/1 looks the value in the race. Might have a smidgeon to find on the fav on past form but has scope for that and I’ll risk as small back as well as the main bet lay. Wouldn’t be so keen to lay a drifting fav in this though as I was ok with it on Monday. This would be one to desist from perhaps if you miss getting the shortish price.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on BERLIN TANGO ( around 2.0 and not much higher than that)

0.05pt BACK on NEW WORLD TAPESTRY ( around 4.0)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 16/25 = 64%  Backs: 5/16 = 31.25%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Sandown (Mar 7) & Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 12 & 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ – Entered for the Champion Bumper (Mar 12)

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave – Entered for Wincanton (Mar 5)Leicester (Mar 6)Sandown(Mar 7)

It’safreebee 

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

NH HORSE TO TRADE/FOLLOW on TUESDAY:

2-30 EXETER – QUICK WAVE – 0.25pt BACK 2nd

(Backed @ 7.2 : Hedged 0.125 @ 3.45 : 0.125 @ 1.9 : 0.25pts @ 1.5)

Classic trade opportunity as Quick Wave did us proud running in the front two throughout and several times looking the potential winner. I played a 50% hedge at the half way stage in running and levelled out into the final furlong taking a stake equivalent hedge in the last half furlong or so with the result seriously still in doubt.

Managed to keep 1.006 point profit in the event of victory only for the mare to be just run out of it. Jumping ultimately cost her but a stellar run nevertheless and we stay with her on the to follow. A win sure to come on that evidence. Entered again for several other races later this week.

 P/L on the day = +0.245points

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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