BOZmail – 4th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY JULY 4th  2019 

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

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Second round official Wimbledon tips for Wednesday.

Margarita Gasparyan to beat Elina Svitolina @ 8/5- VOID 

Veronica Kudermetova to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 7/4

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Second round official Wimbledon tips for Thursday

1.Petra Kvitova to beat Krystina Mladenovic @ 4/11

2.Elise Mertens to beat Monica Niculescu @ 6/19

3.Barbora Strycova to beat Laura Siegemund @ 3/13

4.Katerina Siniakova to beat Johanna Konta @ 13/5

Day 4 Wimbledon Preview:

Desperate luck for Margarita Gasparyan on Wednesday as her beleaguered knee collapsed again when a set and 5-5 up against Svitolina.Playing superbly. Terrible for her but she did the right thing not to play too long through the pain and tears and retired thus voiding the fixed odds match bet. I was trading and made a good wedge – a large portion of  which I will send to Injured sportsplayer charities (IJF & ITPF). My sadness nothing compared to hers of course but I felt it. She was on my list of grass players to win a future slam. She plays that well. Tragic that she has had so much injury so young.

I just traded out the other match on Kudermetova as she led in the first set tie break which she proceded to lose. Leaving that as a small either way winner now (still playing as I write) as Kudermetova also has injury issues and has had trainer and doctor on court. Wozniacki in marginal command but this is women’s tennis. Still an anything could happen scenario!!

On to Thursday and four bets. Various ways to play. The first three are banker grass courters against non grass courters although Niculescu can be dangerous on grass. Traditionally a clay courter but has had her moments at Wimbledon in the past. Is also outranked and outclassed by Mertens however. Will be a shock if it doesn’t land. Kvitova is the staggered acca banker as you’ll see below. Strycova the least fancied as she is up against the feisty Siegemund and is the worst price. Don’t expect the upset as surface preferences are very clear but won’t be backing or trading Strycova singly. My play is a 0.5pt fixed odds treble on the top three and a 0.1pt four timer to include Siniakova at a decent price to topple Konta. She holds a 1-0 head to head plus and is a headcase player in the Ostapenko bracket. Gets very wired up but knows how to get into opponent’s heads and its those Konta copes with least well.

Konta herself has become hard to read as she played outstandingly this year on her least favoured clay (before the SF freeze v Vondrousova) but has lost on grass v Ostapenko and Jabeur. I actually think grass is not really her greatest despite her Wimbledon SF in the past. Serve and forehand are weapons but footwork lets her down. And then that headspace query with her when expectation is on as it will be in front of home crowd. I take Siniakova to capitalise at a value price and will be trading that one as well as including it in my four timer.    

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

0.75pt LAY on SERENA WILLIAMS 

0.1pt BACK on ASH BARTY

0.1pt BACK on KAROLINA PLISKOVA

0.1pt BACK on PETRA KVITOVA

0.1pt BACK on JELENA OSTAPENKO – Eliminated

0.1pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA

0.1pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN – Eliminated

Just Pliskova left in the bottom half the draw and she plays tricky dicky Hsieh Su-Wei in the next. Might feel a hedge coming on there! No panic other than that in her quarter of the draw. SF if she overcomes the Hsieh hurdle.

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

2-00 HAYDOCK & 4-10 PERTH

That’s jump racing. Beach Break looked on to me to make all as although the Vollan was cruising, he was likely to find less in the finish and Beach Break could have held an edge I’d say before that horlicks at the second last. Real stinker. Jockey and horse at loggerheads about the stride always ends like that unless the jockey sits out. Hughes interfered and paid the price. Hey ho. At least the LIM system and the redoubtable STD came to our rescue. I never doubted the boy! His third winner of the day. Two of them armchair rides. This one a testimony to his terrific strength in a finish. Not often jump jockeys mature into even better jockeys as they get older. STD bucking that trend most nobly.

He rides in one of my Thursday plays as I try the very rarely used LIM twister! I was at the races with a BOZmailer on Sunday who said he didn’t think my tipping style that weird when I said it was. He may change his mind when he sees this!

The twister comes into play when I can’t make up my mind between two races on a given day. Basically I like the back in the 4-10 at Perth but am not wild about laying the favourite who looks a potential good thing if I’m wrong about the back (and it is speculative and I’m keen because of the value). In the 2-00 at Haydock, I do like taking on Starczewski who has a chance but is up against five others who can all win. I like Battle of Wills and Frasier Island particularly with the BOW LTO form receiving a serious boost since and Frasier Island being a Johnston winner back to his mark and they often run well. So I could back two in that and lay the fav but still not find the winner (and Starczewski could win) or I could just lay the fav but then I miss my punt on Blue Kascade at Perth. I rule out STD’s The wicket chicken in that race. Ned Stark is held on LTO form (although that could reverse it looks unlikely) and King’s Song is an impossible to assess Irish raider from a gambling stable with Mr manipulation in the saddle. That could win or come last. It’s that sort of race and one I really ought to leave alone but my race read ultimately comes down (on those players I trust) to be a win for the fav or a possible win at last for Blue Kascade. Sandy Thomson’s charge would actually be my idea of the class in the race and receives a stone from the fav but of course has shown no recent form and the stable has hardly done anything for ages. Hence the value price of 11/1 as I write. You’ll probably get longer despite his being back down now to a winning mark. Brian Hughes rides again and will have to do better than he did on Wednesday but I can’t resist the punt. Especially as we could well get a lot better than 11/1 on the exchanges. And I’ll pay for it with the lay on the fav at Haydock! The LIM twister. If it works, you may see it a bit more often!! Can’t exactly remember the last time I used it. Probably three or four years ago!

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on STARCZEWSKI – 2-00 HAYDOCK – (around 2.9 : no greater than 3.2)

0.1pt BACK on BLUE KASCADE – 4-10 PERTH

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 119/178 = 66.85% :   BACKS: 32/118 = 27.11%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars – Entered at Sandown (July 6)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.0 points.

Staggered acca number 13: (LEG 1)

Winbledon second round on Thursday:

Petra Kvitova to beat Krystina Mladenovic @ 4/11 – 0.75pt WIN

That is a value price as Kvitova will munch her on her best form. They have played a lot in the past and the Czech double Wimbledon champ stands at 7-1 and 1-0 on grass. Mladenovic has a serve and looked a possible Wimbledon champ early in her career but well past that now as ground strokes and mindset not developed anywhere near enough. She went off into doubles specialism where she has done well. Her serve and her partners groundstrokes make a potent mixture. Stood on court alone now, Mladenovic is very brittle. I think the fixed odds price is as high as it is (you might have expected 1/7) because Kvitova is carrying a taped elbow. On top of her well documented assault hand injury which has taken a while to come back from. Nothing wrong with Kvitova’s champion’s mindset however as she demonstrated in Melbourne reaching her first slam final outside of Wimbledon. Not a hard courter, she played fabulous there. Hasn’t played much since presumably because of the elbow but looked ok in round one v Jabeur. Back with the fixed odds boys however in case of a retirement. No trading for me on this one. Just think maybe Kvitova has her eye on being Wimbledon queen for the third time if her body holds up. Hence the bet in the outrights also.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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