BOZmail 4th JULY

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY JULY 4th  2020 

THE BOZMAIL @ EPSOM FOR THE DAY!!

Regulars know that I always like a tilt at the Derby and this year more than ever, with the need for cheering up!, I’ve had a right good look and been watching fervently for the past month to see who my colours will be tagged on. Strange year of course with Derby and Oaks taking place same day with no crowd in attendance and with the Irish Derby having already taken place with no English runners therein. Like everything else in life at the minute, somewhat upside down!

First thing to say for those new to my Derby previews is that I don’t have a spectacular record in the race! For that look to Aiden O’Brien who has won five of the last eight runnings. More on that later!

The Boz’s last winner was Ruler Of The World in 2012 but I did put that up as a 20/1 ante-post advice here on The BOZmail so we’ve paid for all of our losers since. That was the year Aiden first started realising that he could train Galileo’s progeny to win at Epsom and has specialised in that ever since. You can’t argue with the record and of course Galileo won the race himself in 2001 so the facts speak for themselves. I,however, have always thought Galileo’s are a bit vulnerable in the last half a furlong to a proper stayer. No doubting the pedigree for speed and class – both of which stand you in good stead at Epsom – but personally I always preferred Montjeu (who was owned by Tabor but not trained by O’Brien of course and who never ran in the Derby himself – injured) and Camelot (who O’Brien did train to win it) as the staying supremos of the Ballydoyle breeding stock. Aiden has however made an art of getting Galileo’s to win at Epsom even when their ultimate class might be in question as we saw last year with the victory of Anthony Van Dyck. No Shergar is there for all to see but he still got up. That’s the genius of O’Brien for you.

And of course he comes mob handed this year with six runners – five of whom are Galileo’s and none of which was a runner in the Irish Derby where O’Brien unsurprisingly fielded the first four home. Santiago’s absence here is significant I think. He’s an Authorised – proper staying pedigree – and won over 1m 6f at Royal Ascot beating Berkshire Rocco who English King also trounced over 1m 3 and a half furlongs in the Lingfield Derby trial. Santiago has been saved for another 1m 6f at the Curragh in a fortnight’s time and I’d say Aiden has a line and he fears English King.

He’s brought the Galileo speed army to Epsom to ride as a team to try and beat the English usurper! And what a name for a Derby winner English King will be! You couldn’t write the script.

Is that it then? The BOZ’s rule over the race has been run and come up with the mighty impressive Ed Walker charge as his tip? Marquand has been jocked off and Frankie’s experience and unflappable knowledge has been booked which is a massive tip in its own right. On my to follow list so I was obviously mighty impressed. My magic time ratings also say he has the beating of O’Briens entourage. He is however 3/1 fav. 7/2 at best and in fact I do have a small niggle with him so that the price is not value. He is unproven on ground with juice in. In fact ran on soft on debut and didn’t obviously revel in it. Won on standard to slow at Newcastle but that was all weather and not comparable to turf for form study purpose as we know. The blitz at Lingfield where he seriously cantered past Berkshire Rocco (that form boosted at Ascot by BR’s proximity to the Irish Derby winner) was on lightning quick good to firm which it is unlikely to be at Epsom. Could be good ground if it stays dry today and tomorrow morning. Has been good to soft during the week and there is rain around (heavy here up North as I write) although nothing significant in the next two days forecast for Epsom. Even so, it’s a niggle. English King ticks all the boxes for me except for that and the price. I do think he looks the most like a Derby winner in the field in that tradition of a horse that could be head and shoulders above the rest.

I don’t fancy Mogul much and I think Kameko’s likelihood as a stayer is in doubt. Russian Emperor could be a dour winner in a bad year but I don’t think this is a bad year so he’s a top six finisher only for me. And if you want my idea of the O’Brien value runner, that would be Mythical who is my each way tip at 66/1 on the premise that he is the only non Galileo O’Brien runner in the field. Out of Camelot. I say no more!

So English King is my tissue fav but because of the ground niggle I’d go more 5/1 or 11/2. It is a big field and fairly open looking and a rough race is distinctly possible so for me, 3/1 and 7/2 is short. Just gone 4/1 I note. That’s better. If he gets to 5/1, I’ll be backing him (he’s in my Oaks/Derby double also) but as my actual tip, I have decided to go for my value fancy.

There are two from smaller English stables who put themselves on the radar for me with their runs at Ascot – both of which were big priced winners for the shortlist there.

Paul Cole’s Highland Chief is one who might get my money if it buckets down at Epsom like it did for his day at Ascot. He probably needs that ground. My tip however, despite liking juice, isn’t dependant on it. He tops my magic time figures and he is Willie Muir’s Pyledriver. Already made mincemeat of Mogul and he has my money to dethrone the English King!!

The Oaks is far less open. Straight fight between Love and Frankly Darling to my eyes with Ennistymon in with an each way shout and also the line through which the form can be read. Frankly Darling beat her fair and square over the distance at Ascot and with both horses likely to come on for that, I’d say that form should be upheld. Love also trounced Ennistymon last year over a mile and with both as Galileo’s, I wouldn’t expect that form to reverse here although Ennistymon has of course proven at the distance whilst Love has not and so the value of the two for me is Ennistymon.

Love could be a cut above of course and has shown enough class to win but it is always 50-50 for me when it comes to whether Guineas winners will stay the Epsom mile and a half. That last furlong catches a lot out. Love also has slight ground niggles for me too if it does come up with even a smidgeon of juice in it. Beaten both times on it so far in her career. Frankly Darling clearly for me out of the front two and at the prices. That Newcastle run after lockdown had Oaks written all over it with the way she moved into overdrive over the final two furlongs, pulling away from her field. Same again at Ascot against much better opposition (and will come on again for that race for sure with the time already impressive) and although I never used to be a fan of Frankel’s over a mile and a half, Gosden is the main architect of putting that to bed and Frankie looks to me to have never had a better chance of an Oaks/Derby double. On the same day too. FD has the advantage over Love of being proven on ground and over distance. Love has to be a superstar to beat her.  The value each way in the race may be Passion who is third best in on Ascot figures but could make that position easy enough if Love doesn’t stay.

The Boz will be playing the book in both races, laying Kameko,Mogul & Love in particular – trading on the prices of all I am for and against but also hedging my value outsiders Mythical,Passion,Highland Chief and even Pyledriver although I do intend to carry Pyledriver as a big monetary winner to the line. Ready to roar for him I am. Will also go small reverse forecast for him and English King.

My actual BOZmail bet recommendations are as follows. Stakes to be taken from the Occasional acca pot and I’m not going daft. I know how hard it can be to win these sorts of races.

0.2pt WIN on FRANKLY DARLING @ 2/1 or better to win the Oaks

0.1pt WIN on PYLEDRIVER @ 18/1 or better to win the Derby

0.1pt DOUBLE on FRANKLY DARLING & ENGLISH KING

0.005pt REVERSED FORECAST –  PYLEDRIVER & ENGLISH KING in the Derby

Total Spend = 0.405pts

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.0454 points (+0.0454 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.121 points (+5.121 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.89 points (-0.11 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +4.5874 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +8.875 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 14/21 = 66.66%  Backs : 2/8 = 25%

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LESS IS MORE: 

1-50 EPSOM

Friday’s Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on SHESADABBER (around 1.75. Take as low as you can get to be hedged when offered preferential odds)

Laid @ 1.7 : Hedged 0.17pt @ 1.96 (averaged) before the off : P/L = +0.0232pts 

Nice late drift allowed a bit more profit than expected.That last ten minutes before the off always worth keeping in mind if you haven’t clocked that yet. Some times a gamble and the more cautious will want their green position locked earlier. Was going to be happy with 0.01 but managed over double on my averaged by playing again on the late oscillations. Played the whole trade in segments. It was every bit as bad a race as it looked. Here’s hoping the Derby is better class!

On the premise of BOZmail Rule number one, I looked hard at the three LIM qualifiers at Yarmouth for a possible LIM traditional play here but all three races once more look like lockdown casualties. The fav wins all three! Dunno if you’ve noticed but there’s a lot of small field one horse races around at the moment on the flat making LIM traditional play harder still. Oddsmakers are still tuned to it and making their books watertight. Roll on the jumps’ settle down. It can’t come soon enough!

So I stay in the quality racing at Epsom for an LIM trade play. I love the favourite’s name in this one if the Windsor commentator had it correct. He called the outsider of the ownership pair that came first and second Twaasol – spelled Twarsehole phonetically. I rather think I might call my dump system after this boy!

He won well at Windsor at 16/1 but faces stiffer competition here up in class. Modern News may vie for favouritism after a decent run behind Battleground when upped in class at Ascot. Back in calmer waters here and a race Godolphin like to win. Comes out very similar to Twaasol on paper so sure to cause some price flipflopping in the lead up which is all we are looking for here. Strong chance can also be given to Mutazawwed who is the choice of three entries from the Johnston yard and should front run. Ran well behind Muker in the have a dump race before winning NTO in a time that puts him bang there with the top two and should also allow plenty of price oscillation in running should you fancy or come to that. Inhaler also not out of it on paper whilst the unraced Balding horse ought to need further on breeding but is a true blue blood and has Oisin in the saddle. So a very tight little race and with the Burrows stable out of kilter at the moment (only 25% on the horses running to form chart), Twaasol very much my idea of the lay to be traded if that is still your preference.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on TWAASOL (around 3.0 to be hedged when preferential odds appear and as appropriate)      

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling 

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Windsor (July 6) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Sharp Reply

Waseem Faris

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

TO FOLLOW TRADE FOR FRIDAY:

1-15 CHEPSTOW – JAGANORY @ 12/1 – 0.25pt

Laid @ 5.59 and again at 11.17 : Backed @ 28.0 : P/L = 0

I dunno if that was any of you lot backing Jaganory at 5.59 on Betfair but I’m afraid if it was, I snaffled it. Was expecting much longer than 12/1 in the morning so had the other half of my lay stake at 11.17 and hedged for same stake at 28.0 (averaged) as a back near the off.

Did only play small however as it does look like the horse will take a while to return to old form as we saw in the race. One for the notebook at Bath in weeks ahead but off the list now for that run. No damage done. 

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THE BOZ’s LIST OF NH TRAINERS COMING BACK FROM LOCKDOWN IN RUDE HEALTH (observed on opening day at Southwell)

Olly Murphy

Ben Pauling

Tom Lacey

Nicky Martin

Harry Whittington

Paul Nicholls

Michael Scudamore

Jamie Snowden

Fergal O’Brien

Oliver Sherwood

THOSE NOT FIRING:

Dan Skelton

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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