BOZmail – 4th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

FRIDAY JANUARY 4th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-35 LINGFIELD

The winning lay run extends to twelve and the calls for a lay staggered acca continue and I am listening but it is a different kettle of fish to a back acca with there being not stake and winnings but stake and liability so that if you return stake to bank after leg 1, you have no stake for second leg!! Your stake is your winnings in a lay bet so there has to be different rules. Then there is the question of the mathematical computation needed each leg to determine stake in relation to liability and I wouldn’t be able to make any recommendations there nor judgement with not knowing what odds you were being offered. And finally the issue of size of lay bet by the time you reach leg 12 daunted me when I did it before and would do so again. You don’t have to go to leg 12 of course and you stop a staggered acca when you like but the temptation to keep going when the winning run is on is always strong. We’ll try it one day perhaps but I don’t want to mess with LIM which is the more sensible and solid approach. Of course there are those days when there are two strong lays as there were yesterday. One could be LIM and one staggered acca. Both won as you’ll have seen. That’s the sort of form I’m in at the minute but been in this game long enough to be wary of such runs. They have to end sometime. At least I think they do!! The usual law is they end when you least want them to!

I’m also very wary of greed in gambling. It’s a fact of life but just as bad in gambling as anywhere else. A destructive instinct. Always pays to be content with what you are winning and not always striving for more. You’ll hear my politics in the background there perhaps and rest assured it doesn’t mean I don’t go for the big one nor strive to always improve scores. I do both of those I promise you. But I don’t do knee jerk so I’m still thinking and will continue to do so. When the time is right to try a lay acca I promise I’ll holler. Lays are traditionally my best stuff but I don’t see me cross breeding it with the LIM bet. Strikes me at this stage that odds on shots in races with more than the LIM qualifying six runners could be the source. I’ll start looking and shout if I see one to have a first leg go at.

 

Meantime the tortoise plods on with LIM to see if I can’t land a 13th. Anyone believing in unlucky numbers might leave this one alone. On this issue my superstitious Dad would always say “ there’ll be no 13th selection. Straight on to the 14th! “. Speaking as someone who used to have to locate properties for a living and spent all day one time looking for house number 13 in a particular road only to be told by the post office that house number 13 didn’t exist. The builders had had trouble selling number 13s and so had eradicated them from existence in that area!

Not much time for that sort of thing me!

Another four horse novice chase for Friday and another difficult day in general for narrowing down and even finding a bit of quality but I am actually quite sweet on this one the more I look at it. On the face of it Bastien looks the class after a reasonable chase debut in the Bags Groove race and the chase ratings amplify this but from low incidence with the two main dangers also new to the chase game and Rio Quinto making debut here. That normally signifies lay to me but this one has the chaser stamp written all over him and stable/jockey combo is strong so I’m not laying him.

Lovenormoney has a great name, was the best hurdler and is 2/2 for the champion jockey so I’m not laying him either despite a stable out of form and a less than impressive run first time over fences. Johnson on board will mean no lazy jumping allowed and when Greatrex and Johnson team up it means business and the stable’s only winner in the past fortnight was La Bague au Roi – mare of the season so far for me – which counts as five winners on the stable current form list! Johnson gave that a masterclass ride getting the absolute best out of his charge. As he has tendency to do. I fancy him to do same again here. The horse has the class and Bastien has negatives on breeding at this distance and the more you look, the more you see the argument that the Greatrex horse is just the better class animal of the two and just has to overcome a dodgy first chase effort. Johnson should ensure that.

I do think Rio Quinto is a dark horse danger to them both but is a debutante up against a Johnson ride on which he has 2 from 2 and I take that and the horse’s experience as a reason for backing him to win this race.

Still doing bank management and still early January as a race amongst bad cards, with enough unknowns built in, so still keeping staking lowish.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on BASTIEN

0.1pt BACK on LOVENORMONEY

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 26.5/32 = 82.81% :   BACKS: 4/19 = 21.05%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 14.75 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

 

Nothing doing here at the moment whilst I ponder the next step.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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