BOZmail – 4th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY FEBRUARY 4th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

5-55 WOLVERHAMPTON

I don’t go to Wolverhampton (or Kempton) often and my AW race reads, whilst strong when the clues are there, don’t have the same degree of back knowledge that my NH work has. So in current form, it will pay to be circumspect. This does look a play race however on another sparse day for LIM fare and I am contemplating a visit to US dirt tracks again soon where I perhaps do better and know more. This service has 1/1 courtesy of the Xmas special and watch out for a few more in days ahead if the weather remains foul. US LIMs will tend to appear on day of action rather than night before and don’t have the same degree of tissue info to help decide them but as I say I do OK there these days and will bring them in when the time is right.

The Hannon stable are very out of kilter at the moment and whilst Oh This is Us has the classiest form for this Wolverhampton Class 2 race courtesy of coming 2nd in a French Group 2 race, he has several negatives on top of stable form. Long lay off and record on all weather work against him with his one win on the surface a while back at Chelmsford in a fairly slow time. Has to give weight all round also.

Booking of Ryan Moore might also be less than it seems with just one win and some serious also rans in his charge since he returned from Meydan. Arcanada my idea of the one to take advantage with strong course form, a stable flying and a time plus over the fav on AW figures. I had expected Arcanada to be fav and thus recommend early staking at parameters advised.

 

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on OH THIS IS US (at around 2.8 and below 3.5)

0.15pt BACK on ARCANADA (at around 3.25 or better)

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 40/55 = 72.72% :   BACKS: 7/33 = 21.21%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)  

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14),Magners & Gold Cup (Mar 15)&National (Apr 6)

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Kempton (Feb 8)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

 

NH TO FOLLOW BET on SUNDAY:

4-40 LEOPARDSTOWN – REBEL OG – 0.5pt WIN @ 7/4 or better – LOST

Still questions marks over the Mullins yard and Rebel Og obviously has issues and goes off the list after that.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)

Awaiting next weapons grade selection. Will shout when it appears.

 

LEG 2:3-00 LEOPARDSTOWN – LA BAGUE AU ROI – 0.125point WIN – WON@2.0

 

Delta Work’s defection took some gloss off but an encouraging performance from our tough mare and Kaiser Black’s run in second gets him on to the To Follow list. Price is a bit of a mystery. BSP are reporting 2.9 but I’m presuming that is before deduction. I’ve settled at the 1/1 I got myself and take 0.25pts on to our free bet LEG 3.

 

 

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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