BOZmail – 4th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 4th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.539 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.049 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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LESS IS MORE: Tuesday play

2-25 SEDGEFIELD

So, a welter of email queries today and I’ll attempt to address all the issues here rather than reply individually. Be assured that it gets easier as you go on if you ain’t used to it yet. And you can always email me direct – garyboswell@hotmail.com – with personal queries. I enjoy hearing from you. Just so long as you don’t all do it same time!! Regulars will testify that I reply promptly for the most part. Today has been a bit of an exception. Admin also bending under the weight and some things they ought to know the answer to are being forwarded so bear with us whilst I clarify how much of a trial new members went through before we began. I was working under the assumption everyone would have some basic trading experience if not direct LIM experience. But I know trials and live are different so advice is take it steady if you are still feeling your way. Take first month as a watch-and-see experience maybe if it is all going over your head. It does get clearer the more you practice. Like most things.

I’ll address the main three queries I’ve had today here:

1/ Non runners

You’ll see from my stats that I treat non runners as just that. Scratched. I don’t attempt to replace them although of course what you do is up to you. You have received my race read and in today’s example, I made clear that it was close between Holly Flight and Longhousesignora so if you took the initiative to replace my back with the second best, you came a cropper as Venetia’s lady had a strop at the start (something I wasn’t aware she was prone to – sadly can’t know everything! But I’d have fancied her even if I had known.) Such aspects very much part of racing. I factor them but don’t pretend for one moment that I have every eventuality covered! She consents to start or she doesn’t consent to start. Lots of horses like that. Crystal ball required. Reason I lay favs more heavily than I try to back winners!!

One query asked if the non runner back aspect affected the staking plan. Good question but same answer really. Up to you. I personally don’t panic at non runners.

Sometimes I’m backing the field against a fav rather than laying anyway. If the maths suggests it. But in general, a non runner altering the lay staking advice is only marginal. I build a leeway in each day and remember also if I haven’t said before that you have a huge bank to fall back on anyway should worst case scenarios occur (as they sometimes do). The plan is that you don’t touch bank and all last year and so far all this, we never touched it. So stick with it, play cautious, don’t panic when we have a losing day or couple or three (as does happen).I’m on the case. Part of my selection process is reacting to where we are in the profit cycle. I avoid trouble where I can but when it happens, I’m ready to deal with it. Stay constant and treat non runners as non runners and staking advices as not affected by them. That’s my way. I know that there are several experienced trading hands out there who will be doing things their own way from the same selections. That’s the idea long term. If you’re new, you have the choice to play your own way. If you want to follow me rigidly, that’s ok too. It is actually hard to get LIM wrong once you are in the groove. Because there ain’t no right or wrong. Just your way of playing it.

2/ Backing in increments

This is basic getting best price tactic. Also basic trading tactic. Don’t place all your bet at one time. Stagger it. That way you make sure you are on to some degree and can always wait for the better prices if you feel the market may offer them. Whether it does or it doesn’t isn’t down to me. It is about reading the nuances and the things that influence markets. Other tipsters,stable info, your form read, changing ground conditions, changing weather, mares that are reluctant to start. All sorts. A trader gets to be in tune with such so that as you go on, you can lose the need for increments as you develop your instinct for the peak price. But even then…. The unexpected can always happen. End of the day the price you get is the price you get. Same for me.

Rarely perfect. Rarely absolute best price. Best you could do. If you can’t watch markets, forget all of that. Place your bet when you get chance (avoiding silly price but always taking price – never trust to SP) and take what comes. You’ll still make profit. My strike rates guarantee it.

Someone asked whether I recommended leaving an unmatched before the off price to go in play. Same answer again really. Up to you. If you are watching the race. Good practice. If you ain’t or can’t watch the race, best not to in my opinion although I know some do. Like to be on whatever. If that’s you, its ok. The main one there is never take silly price. That’s the only thing that can bust an LIM bank. Safest thing is get on before the off best price you can. You can always trade it in running if that’s your thing or if you want to do that.  Just always make sure you take your price. Then you know where you stand. You know what outcome win or lose and that both are manageable. Never rush bet where you haven’t had time to think it through. Quick thinking is required for good in play betting. Some are not suited to that. That’s me these days.

I was a very quick thinker as a kid and can train myself that way still. I do play rapidplay chess as my training. Bottom line though. All my best plays ever have been when I had time to think. Probably true of us all to varying degree.

If you are the guy who asked about Ambion Hill play and being talked through that the way I did it, do get back in touch on above email and I will expand. That’s very much trading world. If you ain’t or can’t be a trader, LIM is the thing to concentrate on.

Interest in trading is my thing these days as well although I don’t pretend for one moment to teach it.Happily talk through how I do it I will always do. Basic premise is simple. Buy Low. Sell High. How you achieve that can be done a myriad of ways. Observational skills are key. Never take your eye off the ball if trading is what you are doing.

3/ Lay parameters (what happens if price is not met)

Saved most important one to last. Lay parameters are just a guide not a rule or the law. You can go outside them if you feel comfortable (having done some form study I would advise) or you can stick to them rigidly if that’s what makes you feel safe. It is why they are there as I know from experience that some want that guidance. They will disappear though as we go on. Time has taught me that it is best when you make your own decisions what price you are comfortable taking. Those that don’t know me or my record yet are right to be cautious but those who do know me and have been influenced by watching me over the months and years never lose that caution either because most sincerely folks, I practice it myself. I am known in the business as the most cautious tipster in existence! I ain’t afraid of going gung ho and I have my big wins as much as the next guy. But the thing I seek to cut out is losers. And losing per se.

To do that, you gotta stay always vigilant. Betting is a volatile business. That is always somebody else’s money you are winning and you are winning it cos you played better than them. Never forget or underestimate that. They’ll try to get some back off you along the way. You gotta keep your eye always on protecting yourself and your interests. And if in doubt at any stage, don’t bet. Learn instead from the event you were going to bet on but didn’t. Likewise,when bullish or sure of yourself, be not afraid to have a right go. I do that on occasion. But only on occasion. Most the time I’m staying safe, grinding away with my small accumulative increments. Building the pot and working full time every day to make sure I don’t give back what I won!!!

It happens sometimes of course. That’s when you see me as bear with sore head.

But even then, I never panic. I get my head down and start gradually winning it back.

Welcome to the world according to BOZ.

Hope that all helps. Apologies to those who knew all of that already.Hope I still kept it interesting and/or you skipped forward to tomorrow’s play. Here it is. Those still with individual queries, don’t forget you can contact me anytime direct. Especially if answers you’ve got from admin haven’t made things any clearer. To be fair to them, only one way to learn this game. It is experiential. You gotta do it. Don’t worry, it’s great fun! 

2-25 SEDGEFIELD

So, Monday was classic LIM with the race being fought out by the two I thought least likely to win but the premise was sound nevertheless with the fav struggling with its weight. Lots of LIM races are like that. They don’t all show a profit. Loads do.

But there are other sorts of LIM as it depends what is out there any given day. Tuesday is a different sort of race. Was keen on the race read in the day’s only other

qualifier – the 3-15 at Market Rasen – where I thought McFabulous was value to take on what I thought would be fav in Hijack. McFabulous however is odds on and less of a good thing in my eyes than Evander at Sedgefield. I had thought Len Brennan would be joint favouritish but he is 5/2 on the early tissue and only just opposable at that.

Today might be one of the days where if you don’t get on early you’ll be faced with a drifting or silly price so remember that sometimes the early bird catches the worm. It was true of Monday’s too I note. I saw a whole wedge of you get on early at 2.8 and that price never really appeared at all on Monday forcing the Boz to have to average out at 2.9. Price I have to pay for having so many followers but complain I do not. Keeps me on my toes!

I initially had this as just a two horse race – with Evander ahead on class and times in my book – but fair to say that Ulterior Motives is not out of it getting ten pounds weight with jockeys claim and thus only needing small improvement to match form of front two.And Olly Murphy yard have hit form with a vengeance and all horses are bouncing and improving so Kerrkenny Gold isn’t out of it either and provides further LIM cover.

Winner looks to me to be Evander however and as fav, I’m inclined not to risk the back but play conservative on the lay second fav again. So with yesterday’s non runner that’s four consecutive no back days.No apologies. I do use that tactic a lot even later in cycles as well as regulars will know. Laying is my specialism. I tend only to back LIMs these days if I’m bullish about a winner, or if outstanding value is evident or if bank management allows. Much of LIM is the laying grind. The foundation of the profits lies there.Reason bookmakers spent so long in control of long term profits. These days, we get chance at it too. 

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on LEN BRENNAN (around 3.5 :upper value parameter 4.0 and not a day for going higher than that in my opinion) 

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 3/3 = 100%  Backs: 0/0

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Huntingdon (Feb 6)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – Entered at Huntingdon (Feb 6)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Mares Hurdle Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Saint De Reve

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. 

The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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