BOZmail – 4th December

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the two week trial of the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY DECEMBER 4th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

12-30 SOUTHWELL

 

The market agreed with me again on Monday and The Steward took a walk in both the betting and the race. I did manage an odds on lay just about (1.94) but it wasn’t around long and you see again why I post early. Seriously early for Tuesday with only one tissue out when I penned it so you might find odds at variance again. It is actually quite close between the front two in the betting but far from a two horse race to my eye.

Hoo Bally Diva has some decent Novice form including behind Lil Rockefeller who has been seriously impressive this season beating Treackle Tart and Wenyerreadyfreddie but I’m inclined to take on here with the negatives of that noviceyness (jumps out right and clouts the odd one) and a stable/jockey combo both on the long term cold list. Also up against a nemesis of mine in Dawnieriver who is a serious grafter and pulled the race out of the fire LTO against an Irish plot horse called Sweet Destination. Still well treated by the handicapper and benefitting from the wind op, has run up a sequence of three wins before and looks on the mark here on my speed figures with the handicap experience and the Scudamore brothers combo in place.Wouldn’t want it too soft so watch out for rain but Tom don’t come unless a payday is in the offing!

Archview Sunshine is on the formline behind yesterday’s winner Morraman and ran a corker at 80/1 LTO and if it can jump could easily cause an upset. Silent Steps also a horse with the potential and the ratings to win this so Hoo Bally Diva a lay for me at the price. Not a two horse race as I say but getting weight, Dawnieriver is an irresistible back.

 

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on HOO BALLY DIVA

0.25pt BACK on DAWNIERIVER

 

Thanks to those who emailed with kind words re The Steward gen and the Moffatt fan who corrected my error calling Highland Lodge, Highland Chief!! My age I’m afraid and he’s called Lodgey in the yard so dunno how I could have got that wrong! Working from my failing memory I also said he had won and placed in the last two Becher Chases but on checking that, I found it was actually the last three! I had forgotten the two years ago when he got chinned on the line. Drowning sorrows alcohol bad for the memory as if nature didn’t do enough damage on its own!! A few are asking the name of this year’s plot horse from the yard. Called Just a Par and schooled by Barber and ran last year’s National for Paul Nicholls. Jumps Aintree ok and expect to see it leading from the front – a trick Jimmy has perfected in recent years. He fell in love with Aintree when his old stable star Chief Dan George won the Sefton Novices in 2007. Came from behind that one and is no doubt where I got the Chief from for Highland Lodge – or Dan Lodge as I will no doubt be calling him next time!

Time to stop wittering on and re-iterate yesterday’s message that until Moffat has a winner this week, hold off the Becher Chase ante-post but if he does land one, worth getting on. I actually thought The Steward ran ok again and arguably did stay the 3 miles. Just couldn’t do that change of pace again when it was needed. Not Jimmy’s fault that I don’t think and the string might be in better fettle than is being presumed round here! Not averse to a bit of market misdirection is Mr Moffatt!

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one. So 0.45pts returned to bank which is retained at 10 points thanks to superb never say die from Redditch again for second time in a week!)

 

STAGGERED FOOTBALL ACCA for SATURDAY December 1st:

FIRST LEG:

Southern League Central Division:

Redditch to beat Kings Lynn @ 9/5 or better – 0.25 pts

Redditch-Kings Lynn draw @ 29/10 or better – 0.2 pts – WON

 

We will start the second leg – free bet – stage of the staggered acca with a stake of 0.33pts (Saturday’s winnings). Watch this space for the advice as it emerges. May be next Saturday’s Redditch match at St Neots but could also be something else that emerges sooner or something later if the St Neots fixture is deemed not weapons grade after careful study during the week.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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