BOZmail 4th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

FRIDAY DECEMBER 4th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 117/164 = 71.34%  Backs : 33/102 = 32.35%

2-25 SANDOWN

This is a classy sort of race with a lot of quality novices having a go in the big league to see how they get on. All five can have a case made so Star Gate looks a value lay at a fairly short 13/8. Main negative for him would be stable form with Evan Williams having had no winners from 36 in the past fortnight. My times and figures give Valleres the best chance to beat him though Sending Love has any amount of potential and improvement in him second time out after wind op whilst Press Your Luck and Any News represent value – the latter having tremendous scope to benefit from the step up in trip and on the ground. Stamina very much in his pedigree. Its a hot race and should present a decent watch. I’ll keep bank tight for a few days more yet this month before unleashing in the run up to and over Xmas!

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on STAR GATE (around 2.76 – try for lower if you can get it)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill 

Al Dancer – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12) & King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law

Hitman – Entered for Sandown (Dec 5) & The Arkle (Mar 16)

First Flow – Entered for Tingle Creek,Sandown (Dec 5) & Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

Pepper Street 

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on FRIDAY:

12-35 SEDGEFIELD – PEPPER STREET @ 20/1 – 0.1pt BACK 

12-55 EXETER – BOOTHILL @ 3/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Two more attempts at playing up the winnings of late. Neither is a race I would normally play in but both horses have a special interest for me. Pepper Street is the second researched horse from that Paricolor formline. Jumped stickily in that race and will need to improve on that but has second time after wind op and did seem to be benefiting from that on the level despite finishing 16 lengths adrift of the front two who have both gone on and won since. Also beat Blue Slate home who came out NTO and won at 50/1. Nice big price likely on the mare in this potentially better race. Watch the exchange. Take the best price you can get. Whether you trade it I leave to you or back each way given the hotter nature of this race than the LTO. Your call. For me, a speculative winnings play up with bottom weight looking enticing and the booking of a 7lb claimer ensuring a featherweight. Trainer in form and likes Sedgefield so all the portents are there. Just now needs a good run with some savvy jumping laced in!

Boothill is a different kettle of fish. Been waiting for him and not just me either. Very much a Lambourn talking horse and came to me via one of the few insider contacts I have in the stables these days. Will either be top class or a hype horse. This run should give us a clue. Bowen booked which we like but the form took a slight dent when our boy Bravemansgame annihilated Bothwell Bridge. That could of course mean we have a cracker in Bravemansgame. This race will also tell us that. Question marks also because of first run back after lay off so not one to stake up on at this stage. That might come later if he impresses here. For now, another fascinating winnings play up attempt in a race with more runners in it than I could shake a stick at. You could of course also easily trade this if you prefer.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +51.6657points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.5668 points (+12.5668 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 49.0394 points (+41.0394 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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