BOZmail – 4th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY AUGUST 4th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-00 MARKET RASEN

Didn’t quite get my predictive maths right to ensure a wiped slate but it wasn’t difficult to turn my small minus into a small plus once the run came on Tabdeed’s price and connections knew what to expect obviously whilst Bernado did give us a value run for our money on his ground. Would have been cleverer just to oppose Oxted but of course that is hindsight talking and in general a no great damage day and a not far from worthwhile play. Never too upset to get out of Saturday’s racing without a damaging minus!

On to Sunday and a couple of to follows to trade whilst back over the jumps for LIM. This wouldn’t be my strongest of fancies with seven runners in the race but it is less competitive than it looks and I’ve narrowed it to the two LTO winners carrying penalties. Court Duty owes his win to the champ after belting the last at Newton Abbot where Dicky performed wonders to stay in the plate and get him home. Not surprised he’s given the ride back to Paddy Brennan! I stick with the old NH winners 7 day rule which is fulfilled by Beautiful Ben who showed good form to beat our hero Prettylittlething who ran another blinder. The form of Court Duty’s win was demolished by another race we played in where Annie Angel tore Templepark in two!

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on COURT DUTY (around 3.8 : no greater than 4.0)

0.2pt BACK on BEAUTIFUL BEN (around 5.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 138/205 = 67.31% :   BACKS: 42/141 = 29.78%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

Charle Brune 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee 

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Lepoardstown (Aug 8)& Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

2-15 GALWAY – CHARLE BRUNE @ 8/1 or better

3-10 CHESTER – MISS CELESTIAL @ 5/1 or better

Both back to lays to show small profit and neither a huge fancy. Prescott has saved his for a pot shot at a Listed race which seems ambitious but he’d know better on that than me. If Charle Brune carries his penalty like he did LTO, he’ll win again but 15lb inspires some doubt. Seriously pulling a cart however and not impossible that 15lb won’t stop him. One of those improvers again! 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

Will shout if or when another starter emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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