BOZmail 4th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY AUGUST 4th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.9705 points (+0.9705 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.6153 points (+6.6153 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.23 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +6.2718 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.5594 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 35/45 = 77.77%  Backs : 4/18 = 22.22%

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LESS IS MORE:

6-00 SOUTHWELL

Monday’s Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on COCONUT (around 4.0 to be hedged as soon as preferential odds occur) 

Laid @ 3.75 : Hedged 0.075pt @ 5.0 : P/L = +0.0245pt

Henryville would eat these on his best Chase form and he wins on best hurdle form also but that is from five/six years back and he’s a twelve year old now. Southwell might compensate for his declining lack of pace and were he an outsider, I’d have him as the back. The biggest sticking point against his winning however is the Bowen stable form. No winners since return from lockdown and none in the last 68 the stable has sent out with those running to form just 13% in the last 14 days. That is cold list time and Henryville seriously has to buck that trend to win. Absolutely no value at 2/1 and 12 years of age.

Fellow tissue fav Adjutant also has a question mark regarding distance. Unproven at it and doesn’t have the breeding profile to suggest a track like this would suit. Also has to give 12lb to Henryville which is an ask even allowing for the latter’s question marks.

So double lay is on and we look elsewhere for the winner and only two don’t have similar persuasive negatives. Jimmy Rabbitte hasn’t come back from lockdown bouncing as he might have but has form to win this from last summer at Ffos Las with mark only marginally above now and stable are among the most in form in this field.

Malangen would be my value outsider with jockey needing winners and the Pipe stable also yet to really start firing. I’ll leave him in though as his price is something I wouldn’t want to miss. Couldn’t hold a candle to Henryville as a chaser but might just be the one to be most suited to this track and contest.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on HENRYVILLE (around 3.0)

0.1pt LAY on ADJUTANT (around 3.3)

0.05pt BACK on JIMMY RABBITTE (around 3.8)

0.01pt BACK on MALANGEN  (around 17.0)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Malotru 

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat – Entered at Stratford (Aug 6)

Beholden – Entered at Stratford (Aug 6)

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic – Entered at Newton Abbot(Aug 5)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love – Entered at Newton Abbot(Aug 5)

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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