BOZmail – 4th APRIL

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Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY APRIL 4th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

2-50 AINTREE

Posting early for Thursday because of the staggered acca starting and the need to get in on the price early. See below. The LIM also goes to Aintree which I don’t swerve as much as I do Cheltenham these days. The Aintree races slightly less competitive and the track fairer. Plus Cheltenham provides good clues and gen as per this race where I think Clan Des Obeaux is an oppose at his tissue price of 9/4.

Although he won easy at Ascot and will be suited more to this track than Cheltenham, I formed the opinion at the time that he was a bit of a lucky winner of the King George and the Gold Cup did bear that out. Bristol de Mai beat him on merit at Cheltenham and although that was more of a stamina test than this and thus arguably favours Clan Des Obeaux less, it was top class form nevertheless and collateral. Bristol De Mai also showed he likes it here with his second in this last year and wintry weather has also come to the North West on cue and will also favour him.

Then there is Kemboy. Early faller at Cheltenham so no labours to shrug off like the other two. Has to improve but as a Mullins, highly likely to do that and Ruby takes the trouble to come for the ride. Road to Respect held by Kemboy but also a challenger in the if he finds further improvement stakes so a tough field for CDO to take on.

I’m mainly bullish however because of that King George result. Bristol De Mai fell over and tripped up Waiting Patiently in the process. Stand up this time and he can beat CDO again as he did at Cheltenham.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on CLAN DES OBEAUX  (around 3.25: no greater than 4.0)

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

4-35 MARKET RASEN

April up and running as I get one right that the market got wrong. I didn’t manage best prices as wasn’t around for the full price watch so well done to those who outscored my prices. Plenty around better than mine and Cafe Espresso touched an inexplicable 4.0 in running having led the whole way. Such was the market’s misplaced confidence! Good for us.

A similar low stake play Wednesday as I wind up for the start of the next staggered acca at Aintree. More details tomorrow and I will be on the road during Aintree so watch out for some different posting times. Friday’s mail might not be out until Friday morning.

Bit more value aimed for Wednesday as this is a very competitive 7 runner mare’s handicap hurdle with plenty around to beat topweight fav Carrolls Milan who carries a penalty for winning LTO.Peters Cousin set to improve for step up in distance and Jet Set very dangerous if he stands up. Dark horse Big Penny on second outing since wind op and Jonjo always dangerous on wind up to festival time. The one for value however is Tristan Davidson’s Rubenesque who fell when beat LTO but has good chance on form before that and the Davidson yard is noted for strings of winners when it hits form and 2/2 and running to 100% form in past fortnight bodes well. Trains just up the road from me and this one has a time figure/rating that gives him a serious chance against the fav who ostensibly carries a further 7lb penalty this time out given claiming rider when winning LTO. Gives us a serious chance of another pay day to build the bank for Aintree.

RECOMMENDATION:

0.2pt LAY on CARROLLS MILAN (around 3.5 : not greater than 4.4)

0.1pt BACK on RUBENESQUE

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 76/107 = 71.02% :   BACKS: 18/69 = 26.08%

NH HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

1-45 AINTREE – LA BAGUE AU ROI – 0.5pt WIN @ 2/1 with PADDY POWER

Been very patient waiting for this next Staggered acca starter and hope we have a little more luck with the weapons grade horse actually getting round than we have had so far! I consider it a good value at 2/1 with Paddy Power and recommend that you take that now. I would expect shorter nearer the off.

The only slight downer for me is that the Greatrex yard could be in better nick. His running to form score is 57% though so just not been getting winners and this is the stable star who he has also managed well and been patient with in sidestepping Cheltenham for this. The Leopardstown form has stood up with Kaiser Black coming in NTO and this track should suit in a similar way. Mengli Khan swerved that race you may remember but does come here which may be significant. On Cheltenham running however, I think we are ok there. There are dangers and all the other five would have a chance if the race went their way. I particularly like Bags Groove and Mengli Khan at their prices and would be saving on them if I were trading the race. This is a weapons grade back however because of four things.

1/ La Bague au Roi is the form horse and the best horse in the race on the book. Not by far in any of their cases but clearly so nevertheless. She has a game attitude and the champ on board and can thus be expected to uphold the form barring unforeseen accidents or eventualities.

2/ She gets the 7lb mares weight allowance despite being the form horse. Massive in a race like this. Ought to clinch it really.

3/ Despite the above, Paddy Power are going a stand out 2/1 as I write. Unless they know something I don’t, I don’t expect that to last long. Take it or as near as you can asap.

4/ Most bookmakers offer money back as free bet if you lose on first race of day at Aintree. You might not get 2/1 with that but might be a way to play in any case!! She might fall knowing our luck with these so far! Insurance no bad thing,

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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