BOZmail – 3rd SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY NINE:

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 3rd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +10.8867 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

NO PLAY DAY

Hands up those who hedged Julia Goerges at 1.03 as she stood a set and 5-4 up serving for the match and advantage for match point? You see why I trade on women’s tennis matches now but sadly I was embroiled in the delicacies of the Bencic v Osaka at the time (see below) and missed my chance. I actually thought Goerges had it. Losing those four games in a row from 5-3 up second set was most unlike her. But women’s tennis is women’s tennis and I’m on a touch of Murphys Law too as I originally had Bencic as my LIM and Goerges in the staggered acca before that fell and I switched them. Goerges was definitely my grade A of the two. There you go.

So now I have an LIM deficit to shift (compensated by a winning day thanks to good trading plus) and only two tennis matches down for Tuesday. Serena v Qiang and Konta v Svitolina. Don’t fancy either of them and I’ve scoured horses and decided to stick to staying out there too so it’s an official no play day on Tuesday as we carefully draw a protection ring around the small plusses I’m making at the moment. That time of year. And better than losing. I am looking at the portfolio again but in general am not seeing reasons on the book for opposing Serena. Could be wrong but am very much in cautious mode away from home and on somewhat shaky wifi!

We’ll see what Wednesday brings and back in blighty for Friday’s fare.

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY       

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 153/230 = 66.52% :   BACKS: 44/157 = 28.02%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

THE FINAL 2019 Staggered  Acca number 18: 

So the final acca repaired damage only. I’ll take time out now to consider the next step and keep you all informed of decisions as they are made.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

SERENA                                                   Current P/L = +0.6 points

REST OF THE FIELD                                                    = 0 points  

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FOURTH ROUND US OPEN MATCH TO TRADE on MONDAY:

Naomi Osaka v Belinda Bencic

0.25pt BACK on BELINDA BENCIC @ 2.94 – (Bencic +0.485 : Osaka -0.25)

0.25pt LAY on BENCIC @ 1.75 first set – (Bencic +0.2975 : Osaka +0) 

0.2pt BACK on BENCIC @ 3.5 first set – ( Ben +0.7975 : Osak -0.20)

0.3pt LAY on BENCIC @ 1.13 at 5-3 second set – (Ben +0.7585 : Osak +0.1)

                                    P/L on the match = +0.7585

Plenty of ping pong first set and could have done more and optimised more but was watching Goerges at same time. Second set saw Bencic in control for the win against the book.

SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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