BOZmail 3rd SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 3rd  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +14.2072 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.943 points (+4.943 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 18.4197 points (+10.4197 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9935 points (-0.0065 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 75/105 = 71.42%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

6-00 SOUTHWELL

With Bannixtown Glory as the fav, I wasn’t going to be very keen on this race. He’s on my radar winning the race Samson’s Reach showed up in at Bangor. Carries a penalty here but not out of it with Break The Rules, Hotter Than Hell and Talkingpicturestv all with cases to be made so that proper Ticket looks a lay at the prices having been off the track 170+ days and also with penalty to carry. Race does have a September feel to it again so I’m staying cautious this first week just to see how we go before making a decision whether to expand LIM September activity or not. Somethingaboutangela was a safe lay after all as I’m sure you noted. My caution may be unmerited.

0.15pt LAY on PROPER TICKET (around 3.0)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE AT SALISBURY on THURSDAY:

3-10 – ALICESTAR @ 25/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are offered:

A race to see if the impression of that first run was accurate. Did look a very smart sort. But tinged with my distrust of flat racing still. Won’t be taking any risks here!

Value bet hedged into a free bet or better as soon as opportunity arises. Form was boosted by the victory of Soldier Lions at Bath on Wednesday. That bodes better.

Shortlist had a third consecutive decent performance at Bath also on Wednesday. Maybe things are settling down on the flat? I’ve got my eye on it! If this wins it will help!

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi – Entered at Sedgefield (Sep 4)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

NH TO FOLLOW HORSES RUNNING on WEDNESDAY:

3-20 UTTOXETER – OSCAR ROSE @ 9/2 – 0.25pt BACK -3rd

Proper horse race and the decision not to trade it was an error as the 6.4 down to 3.4 meant a decent greening possible. No regrets however as this was a long distance investment. Didn’t jump quite well enough in hurly burly of handicap debut but nothing to be ashamed of and showed promise for the future for sure. Nice turn of foot and did see it out well. Just that early blunder that cost him a good racing position.  Will get it back I’m sure if we continue to follow this one.  P/L = -0.25points  

4-15 HEXHAM – PISGAH PIKE @ 8/13 – 0.25pt BACK –1st

Backed at 1.8.Very Impressive. Keep him on the list! P/L = +0.196points

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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US OPEN report DAY TWO:

VALUE FIRST ROUND PICKS to start as 0.15pt BACKS for in play trading & hedging:

Yanina Wickmayer (8.6) to beat Sofia Kenin 

Backed @ 11.0 : hedged @ 7.2 : P/L= 0

Stefani Voegele (5.7) to beat Maria Sakkari

Backed @ 6.0 : hedged @ 5.4 : P/L = 0

Anna Blinkova (4.8) to beat Jennifer Brady

Backed @ 5.5 & 12.0 : hedged @ 5.0 : P/L = 0

Madison Brengle (2.1) to beat Ariyna Rodionova

Backed @ 2.1 – No hedging necessary : P/L = +0.165

Kurumi Nara (2.1) to beat Patricia Maria Tig

Backed @ 2.1 – Gone to bed to played at fixed odds – LOST : P/L = -0.05

 I reserve that for my list of first round bankers which is as follows:

Camila Giorgi (1.5) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck – WON

 Alize Cornet (1.33) to beat Lauren Davis – WON

Alison Riske (1.17) to beat Tatjana Maria – WON

Petra Kvitova (1.18) to beat Irina Begu – WON

I stake that as a 0.25pt four timer. WON – Returned Profit = +0.4385points

Got my hedge on Wickmayer when she took a 30-0 lead first game of the match – one of those an ace.Was shouting for her as a free bet for the rest of the match.Sometimes, that’s all it takes! But wasn’t much fun! There were plenty of competitive rallies but on class and results, Kenin outclassed her throughout. Not the frailty there I had thought might manifest itself so she is no longer a target lay in the outrights. Sakkari v Voegele was closer. The Swiss played some sweet stuff second set and started out the third with every chance. There was some chance for profit but I’d greened out end of the second set for a small free bet and was in truth wilting for sleep! Placed the Nara as a fixed odds bet and went to bed. Dunno what happened there. She fell out of the telly by the looks so I register a loss on her.

My main watch of the evening was seeing the acca home. It was a messy match and Cornet scuffed her way to win the first set 6-3 looking the class I expected in terms of winning the key points but then fell into a classic Gallic strop second set as is her want often. Played like a dying snail and lost 6-1. A set full of shrugs and “What do you expect if you bet on me” type indifference and I was starting to regret not taking the chance to cash out of the acca at end of first set when 1.08 had been on offer. But I’ve watched Cornet for a long time now. She was obviously the class in the match. Davis is a ballsy fighter but Cornet only has to pull herself together and remind herself she is the top 20 player and it is plain sailing then.No guarantee this was going to happen but fortunately it did. She breezed the final set 6-0 cocking the snook throughout and saying “ what were you worrying about? I was just messing with you!”

It was actually a classic yoyo match for trade purpose but I’d been in no mood for it and was just urging her to get on with wrapping it up. The late night entertainment two nights in a row is perhaps a bit of an ordeal for me these days! I’d had a busy day leading up. I think maybe second round I will confine myself to fixed odds efforts! Get up in the morning and see how they got on! First round trades had little success but the first round yields a plus. Might concentrate on accas and the outrights portfolio for a while now. Trading through the night is perhaps a young man’s game!

US OPEN TRADES: +0.115 points

US OPEN ACCAS: +0.4385 points

US OPEN TOURNAMENT SCORE AFTER ROUND ONE: +0.5535 points

SECOND ROUND BANKER ACCA:

Angelique Kerber to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam @ 1.3

Sloane Stephens to beat Olga Govortsova @ 1.7

Haven’t found a great deal to fancy second round and contenting to stake a small 0.1pt WIN DOUBLE on these two big guns who will outclass on their best form. Neither is that reliable these days and Stephens is a surprisingly big price suggesting she may have injury issues I don’t know about. She won her first round in workmanlike fashion so I’ll risk it. Intend to spend these next two days trying to work out an approach to the outrights portfolio. Haven’t come up with any clear path to that just yet.

The Kerber match does happen earlyish on Wednesday (Stephens match Thursday) so I am posting this as a BOZmail add on.

BOZ

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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