BOZmail – 3rd OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY OCTOBER 3rd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.5647 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.812 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY 

3-05 WARWICK

I’m afraid Wednesday showed clearly how the element of guesswork is in the game at this time of year and I made an error coming off taking on Ballyart who couldn’t jump to save his life and played in a flat race. If I am gonna go on guesswork, I should stick to the jumps where I tend to know more and do better at it. At least the staggered acca nap won and we roll on there. 

LIM under pressure however and Thursday no easier with nothing that really stands out for me on the all weather so left with this Beginners Chase at Warwick once more dominated by a Twisty fav. No clues as to its price as I write so I’ll delay posting until I’ve seen the tissue. If he jumps like Ballyart, we’ll happily take him on and I said yesterday that I’m not afraid of taking Twisty on at this time of year. It’s a well known bookmaker system that the yard does well Sept/Oct and much touted by tipping outlets also so the horses are often overbet and come with a write up that says ‘yard in good form’. That’s true to some extent as the winners are going in and the strike rate is decent but still plenty running way below their expectation and his yard to form in running % is only 47%. My yardstick on that parameter is that below 50% suggests yard not running that well and still to come to itself. Subjective interpretation of course but it stands me in good stead overall as a tipping factor to rely on.

So I take on Ballymoy tomorrow on his chase debut despite having the best hurdle form. He’s actually not that far in front of an old to follow horse of mine Equus Amadeus whose form in front of Irish Roe and behind Verdana Blue in the Scottish Champion Hurdle reads ok and puts him right there for this.Johnson has won on him before and comes in for his second ride over fences after the debut didn’t go too well.Been schooled a fair bit more since then. Two other nice sorts who might make better chasers in Nube Negra and Thistle Do Nicely so some decent LIM cover. Worth noting also that Ballymoy is a Flemensfirth so this will be plenty sharp enough for him and his hurdle form is really over further. 

I’ll wait for the tissue to decide on the staking and how I’ll play given the current bank management position.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on BALLYMOY (around 2.3 : No greater than 2.7)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 164/253 = 64.82% :   BACKS: 48/171 = 28.07%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

(Leg 2)

12-15 BANGOR – BACK on LEGENDS GOLD – 0.205pt BACK (even money) – WON

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer  

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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