BOZmail 3rd OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

SATURDAY OCTOBER 3rd  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +28.2498 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.9501 points (+5.9501 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 31.3852 points (+23.3852 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.0635 points (+0.0635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 84/117 = 71.79%  Backs : 22/72 = 30.55%

4-55 GOWRAN PARK

You ever heard anything as daft as the 4-04 at Fontwell? Yet more pissing around with the conventions of the sport. As if off course ISPs wasn’t bad enough! We’ll get used to it I suppose but big fields again at Fontwell and as manky a card there as I’ve ever had cause to study! I did look at defecting to Ireland and Gowran Park for the day’s only official LIM qualifier but decided to stick where I know the track at Fontwell and an unforeseen development yesterday that I can turn to advantage here I think.

“Pres also looks to have a preference for soft or heavy ground and not likely to get that here……” said I forgetting to check my BBC weatherman as part of my race read.

Bucketed down at Fonters and Pres won a race purely and simply on preference for the mud. Buster had it after the last but the slog up the hill in the downpour played right into head down, knees up Pres who bog trotted past. That gives a good angle for forming Saturday’s play in this bizarrely timed race.

Pertinent for me too as I spent best part of three days earlier this summer asserting how critical it was to keep your eye on ground conditions and changing ground conditions when studying form and betting horses with an igoramus who kept saying a winner should be pickable irrespective of what conditions it ran on! That is actually true in some countries where ground conditions rarely change.Not however true of the UK!!

And so to the 4-04 at Fontwell on Saturday where the ground looks like it might indeed be quite wet!…………………..

And since I wrote all that, I’ve changed my mind and dodged back to Ireland. GA Law is a hard fav to oppose at Fontwell despite going first time in a handicap and from a stable on the cold list. He does actually look like he might revel in the mud on French hurdles form  and has times to outrun the rest so I’ll whizz back to Gowran Park and take on the Willie Mullins trained Easy Game. Six contestants and any one could win with the Arkle winner Put The Kettle On having possible superstar status although he does have a lay off to overcome. 

I’m a big fan of Peregrine Run too who has his conditions but has to give weight so I’ll forego the back on a seriously trappy day and take on the Willie Mullins fav to small stake. Tennis looks a better call on Saturday to be fair and need these ridonculous big fields to calm down a bit before I really start getting stuck into October.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on EASY GAME (around 3.5 or lower and no higher than 4.0)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY SEVEN)

Did you trade on the yoying of Caroline Garcia’s match point debacle? Trust me to open my big gob and say she would handle a reduced home crowd only for the massed ranks of the Foreign Legion to turn up for this one (social distancing not withstanding) and turning poor old Caroline to her old former quivering wreck of a self.

Fair play to her though. She smiled through it like she would not have done a few years back and I keep the faith! To the extent that I have hedged her in portfolio however! I can take reduced winnings rather than the heart attack her dithering threatens to bring on! And I do need to wipe my portfolio liability out now. On the cusp of going green as we inch toward the last sixteen which is always a decent state of affairs. If Ms Tig obliges me tomorrow and plays well against Fiona Ferro, I shall be green in time for week two! That’s the ticket.

Day Seven activity summarized as below apart from Tig and Ostapenko (not intending to trade her from the outset tomorrow. Only if she gets in bother. Is a game she ought to sail through in the form she showed last round) I look to bankers to repair my early round accas negative.

Day Seven Third Round Banker Acca:

Garbine Muguruza to beat Danielle Collins @ 1.28

Sofia Kenin to beat Irina Bara @ 1.44

Petra Martic to beat Laura Siegemund @ 1.53

Shuai Zhang to beat Clara Burel @ 1.42

0.1pt FOUR TIMER to return 0.4004 points

Not a hugely confident effort but no outsiders fancied or highlighted on Day Seven and most of the focus on the portfolio again and seeing how Ostapenko and Tig get on. The latter is a key match v Ferro and I’m hopeful but pretty tough to call so just a case of being a fan on Saturday and getting my two through to join Iga who played a dream match on Friday and may well now be starting to dream. Her last sixteen match is a seriously appetising affair.

Here, Zhang and Kenin look solid calls although the American no.4 seed is hardly playing at her best. Scrapping through though. Very much a fighter in the Halep mold.

Siegemund is a tricky madam on clay and might get inside Martic’s head like she did last round against Mladenovic. Refused to acknowledge a ball played was not up and umpire missed it and poor old Mladenovic never got over the injustice. Martic is susceptible to such stuff too but also keeps improving her tennis game and defying me. I usually like to oppose her. I’ll change sides and back her as a potential to play through here. The dodgiest leg of the acca might be Muguruza – always a law unto herself. Past winner here and at Wimbledon but you wouldn’t know it at times. Always capable of a stinker. Collins is Miss Feist and if she gets wind in her sails, she can do damage. Outclassed overall by Muguruza’s tennis but not a value play really at 1.28. If you want to leave one leg out, that’s the one. I play to try and repair the acca damage of earlier rounds and as I say, main focus now however is on the portfolio. 

Outrights Portfolio:

0.1pt BACK Patricia Maria Tig @ 450.0 Hedged 0.1pt @250.0  (+19.975) 

0.05pt BACK Caroline Garcia @ 80.0 (+3.925) Hedged 0.05pt @ 40.0 (+1.975)

0.05pt BACK Iga Swiatek @ 24.0  (+1.175)

0.05pt BACK Amanda Anisimova @ 40.0  Hedged 0.05pt @ 32.0 – Eliminated

0.3pt LAY on Simona Halep @ 3.2 Hedged 0.275pt @ 4.2  (+0.17)

REST OF THE FIELD (-0.025)

It wasn’t as good a hedge on Halep as I was hoping for (posted some 5.0 which never got near to being matched) but when you think about it and the way the score of the match went, it was a whole point higher than I laid at and more generous an odds offer than any bookmaker would ever have given! That’s why I love the exchanges. Coupled with the hedge on Anisimova at the same moment, it has made my position close to green now.Anisimova was actually hurting Halep at times and quite competitive but a 0-6 first set? Wouldn’t have expected a hedging opportunity after a start like that. Wouldn’t have got that had it been Serena!

So not ideal but gets the liability down and there is still a feeling Halep could cream the tournament. Down to Iga now to prove that wrong! She was majestic again v Bouchard and the big test now on how much she has improved since last time she played Halep.

Portfolio not gone green yet with Rest of The Field my loser. Will look to hedge a bit more of Tig and maybe some Garcia (took 44.0 on the French woman rather than have to suffer that kind of dithering on match point again!!) to correct that when I can. Still keen to bring Ostapenko in also. Might leave that another day mind.

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required this time!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.3pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.2141pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon – Entered @ Southwell (Oct 6)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Oct 4)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway – Entered @ Kelso (Oct 4) 

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered @ Kelso (Oct 4) & Sedgefield (Oct 7)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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