BOZmail – 3rd NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 3rd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.1357 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +61.198 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

2-30 CARLISLE

Very small play on Sunday with only two qualifying races and the Cork 2-10 is very hard to call whereas this should go to Lostintranslation on all known form and figures and whilst that isn’t a good price, we can just about take on the second fav Kildisart to minimum stake without much risk. Don’t expect Count Meribel to like the ground (he has a fair chance if he does cos distance more his thing) so limited LIM cover hence the caution. Tizzard’s horse should win and get back on the to follow list where he sat for much of last season. I still remember Colin’s gleam in the eye when he beat Defi Du Seuil up the Cheltenham hill and whilst that form was reversed as we went on, Lostintranslation progressed again up in trip and still looks a future Gold Cup prospect. If so, will cream this. Vinndication’s win at Ascot is a big boost for the Lostintranslation form. Bailey’s horse back on my list in case he manages to swerve the head to head with Tizzard’s horse. Which he probably has to on last year’s form.

And talking of to follow horses, did you see the remarkable occurrence re Diego Du Charmil in the 2-10 at Ascot? Check it out on Sky replays if you didn’t. I agree with Andrew Thornton that I’ve never seen anything like that in all my years watching racing.Doesn’t get back on to follow despite eventually winning the race. He’s a first time out horse! Remember him for next season!

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on KILDISART ( around 3.6 : no greater than 4.0)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 184/280 = 65.71% :   BACKS: 52/189 = 27.51%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

(leg 1)

FC FYLDE to beat DOVER at best priced 15/13 in the National League – 0-25pt BACK – LOST 0-0 Draw

Only goalless game in the division. What happened last time if I remember correct!

I really will have to retire the staggered acca some time soon!

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi 

Unwin VC – Entered for Exeter (Nov 5)

Commodore Barry – Entered for Exeter (Nov 5)

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa – Entered for Newbury (Nov 7)

Vinndication

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HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

3-40 WETHERBY – LA BAGUE AU ROI @5/2 – 0.25pt BACK

(Backed at 4.2 before the off. Hedged back again at 3.65 when I heard Warren Greatrex say he’d given instructions to not get involved in a slog. Was obviously going to be one the way the ground went. Took a small 0.05pt @ 7.0 in running when still looking to be going ok which I hedged out of a 5.2 a moment later. Only class could have won her that and not her day obviously. Nothing gained or lost this end. P/L=0)

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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