BOZmail – 3rd MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY MAY 3rd 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

5-30 PUNCHESTOWN

Mmm. Well never one to avoid admitting my mistakes, I must put up hands again. That was a serious travesty of a race to be playing in. Showed how powerless we who sit on our arses not involved with a stable sometimes are. But the market at least told me how stupid I was being. I was thus able to minimise my losses with the second half of my stake at a stunning 1.44. Unbeatable levels usually when it gets to that and so the race showed. As much in the uselessness of the other two and the inability to stick to the rail. Or maybe in a deal that had been struck? A stunning 350,000 traded on the race which suggests again that the big hitters knew the result before the off.

So my mistake was in playing in the race at all. Apologies. Not the first and not the last such error but we live and learn (not to oppose Fanning at Musselburgh so lightly in future) and we don’t panic. Bad start to the month but been there before and hard work always digs us out. A slight change in tactic called for again methinks.

And that is to go back to quality horses for a day and race read the Punchestown Champion Hurdle in an attempt to deal with horses I have some back knowledge of in order to get back on the winning track.

Got Buveur D’Air beat at Christmas and keen to have another go here. Same arguments apply with the additional that his jumping has started to wobble a bit – both at Kempton in the Xmas hurdle and in both Cheltenham and Aintree Festival races.

Always used to be able to bulldoze the odd hurdle but that not working at the moment. Change of jockey too. Likely to make a difference? Not for me. Time for Apples Jade to be the one to take advantage of the better ground that often defeats Buveur. She’ll have more speed and gets the weight if you can forgive her disappointing Cheltenham effort this year. Better at Aintree but not really right at either and been kept on the go it would seem to make amends here. Doubt about her too though so she doesn’t get my back. Supasundae neither as further and softer ground required there these days. Melon? On second at Cheltenham maybe but Ruby’s retirement announcement puts me off there and on to the Mullins second string at the prices. 33/1 about Wicklow Brave on his second to Espoir D’Allen in January on this ground and over this distance appeals to me. Obviously held strictly on form by the top four but all have their question marks and Wicklow has been scrapping with them and coming an honourable second best for a while now. Could be his turn today. Second last year behind Supasundae on softer ground.Won it the year before on this ground and in a time that would win it again. For this jockey.

Call it a hunch. Whatever else it is, it is a change of tactic to try and stop the rot!

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on BUVEUR D’AIR (around 2.75 ; not greater than 3.3)

0.1pt BACK on WICKLOW BRAVE (around 34.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 96/136 = 70.58% :   BACKS: 22/86 = 25.58%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit – Entered for Hexham (May 4)

Opechee – Entered for Hexham (May 4) & Ayr (May 7)

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Rocket Action – Entered for Hamilton (May 5)

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby (June 29)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.544 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 1)

6-20 CHELMSFORD – 0.5pt LAY on LORD LAMINGTON @ 3.0 or less – WON

Reputation redeemed and I can only apologise again for the LIM. Not so much that the fav was better than I allowed for but that Hurricane Hero ran so abysmally.His formline to Tigray proved positive and Tigray finished second here at a boss price whilst the Boz fav duly bossed the race and proved that despite the blips that happen now and again I ain’t so bad at identifying a good lay!And so we get on to a staggered acca with bookmaker’s money to stake with at last.Only taken me five months to get there! I did tell you it’s a bet that needs patience!And we have had a deal of bad luck with it to be fair but on the trail now that I’ve decided to go with a lay version. That ought to mean also that weapons grade efforts come up more frequently the way my study goes. All we have to do from here on is calculate what stake to place in order to have a 0.544 point liability on the next leg.

We will of course all have our own versions of the liability to be carried forward also depending on what price we took today. So all the Boz is gonna concentrate on is top grade lays. You can do your own maths!!

Let’s see how far we can go.  I will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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