BOZmail – 3rd JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

THURSDAY JANUARY 3rd 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

1-15 LUDLOW

You see what I mean about January with another poor lot of racing on offer Thursday and very limited LIM fare.Still on my winning streak however so feel obliged to carry on! Just two races to juggle with and although I quite like the idea of taking on Frankel progeny over 1m 4f at Southwell and so did have a long wrangle with getting Francophilia beat, I have ultimately come here to Ludlow for a poorish Novice Chase a/ because Johnston is always a dangerous man to take on generally but especially so at Southwell and taking him on would mean taking a bigger price than the fav here. So price as much as anything has formed my play for Thursday.

Clondaw Castle does have several negatives for as short a fav as 13/8. I had him more 5/2 or 3/1 in my book but he may have that bit of extra class than the others although that is far from certain. Beaten a fair way in his last two and although it was a fair first effort over fences at Newbury, he did peter out poorly and may be flattered by his earlier form. Points win has been unfranked by the runner up and I feel reasonably clear that at 13/8, he is very short. Stable still under a cloud and his two main opponents – whilst not world beaters – will have plenty of ammo to try and get him beat with. Oxwich Bay will have to jump better but is well rated if he does and ran a promising debut chase himself. Le Precieux was very impressive for the Moore’s LTO and whilst he didn’t beat much and will probably have to do more here, he does get a handy stone off Clondaw Castle and fit and from a stable in form, that could count for a lot.

What finally swang me to this race was the fact that the Newbury run was won by a Moore horse so Gary will know what he has to beat. I think he will be confident Le Precieux has the scope on this softer ground.

Even so, just a minimum play again on such a poor day.

 

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on CLONDAW CASTLE

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 25.5/31 = 82.25% :   BACKS: 4/19 = 21.05%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 14.75 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.

I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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