BOZmail – 3rd FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 3rd 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY

NO PLAY DAY

Not a bad day to have the first LIM no play day since the service started (No qualifiers in either surviving meetings on Sunday). Basically Defi Du Seuil’s victory puts us on the back foot for the first time since the service started. You have to expect it sometime. When it comes I like to take stock and as it occurs alongside the arbiter’s releasing his figures for January, I can report that we scored an official -0.17 points on LIM for January but that the reported score for December was undercooked by 0.5 points.It also included the -0.5 scored on the staggered acca which you will see I recorded separately below. So LIM has actually gone up 0.33 points as reflected above. Because I also scored a small plus on the tennis, and am showing similar small gains on the to follow bank (thanks to Frodon) and small recovery on the staggered acca (thanks to Dynamite Dollars), I am happy to report that BOZmail 2019 showed a miniscule plus for its first month (+0.24 points) and in doing so also protected the December profits of 5.5 points. Of course I have now lost 1.35 points in the first two days of February which is far from ideal, but psychologically it matters. To me at any rate. I know we all have our own scores (and mine includes my trading play on the women’s tennis final) but I also put great store on the BOZmail’s official score and I recommend you do too. We are in this together. Celebrate the successes, work together to ride through the failures.

I’d rather be -1.35 for a playing month knowing what I have to repair than -1.35 for a completed month knowing that there is nothing I can do about that. I don’t like minusses and I have chance to eradicate the February one and the staggered acca one in the weeks ahead and that is what I will be focussing on. No blasting my way out either. And having a no play LIM day helps aswell as I now have time to think and plot and subside that natural flight instinct that always rises when you take a hit. I’ve said before – no knee jerk here. Defi Du Seuil was a hurter of a result but it was also one to learn from and profit from in the future. Lostintranslation didn’t quite cope with the 3lb turnaround but actually lost his race with less than ideal jumps at the Railway fences. Always a killer at Sandown. Geraghty did well to have Defi jumping better there (despite a peck at one from which he was well picked up) and thus also still in touch going to the last two which Lostintranslation needed to ping but jumped less than perfect again. On the run up the hill, he made back a bit and although the 3lb turnaround made the difference this time I would still have Tizzard’s horse for Cheltenham if he jumps as he did last time. And now the odds will seriously favour us. So it ain’t over yet. We also learned that Vinndication will benefit from 3 miles. Not unexpected that.

Lostintranslation ran ok in defeat and didn’t harm the La Bague Au Roi form for Sunday. I was planning to go big on that if Lostintranslation scooted in but I’ll play much more circumspectly now. Second leg of my staggered acca (see below) and thus a free bet that doesn’t risk further injury to bank. Tactical play. And so not a day off either. This Leopardstown meeting also brings Rebel Og back out to play.

Second half of an exciting weekend. Let’s hope Sunday behaves itself better  than Saturday but worry not if it doesn’t. Despite slight disappointment with the January scores, I’m not surprised and feel very much that things are still on course. January has carried on into February and that has to be stopped which is what we concentrate on with LIM getting a deserved rest. See below for the plan going forward.  Going forward is what we do!

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 40/55 = 72.72% :   BACKS: 7/33 = 21.21%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo – Entered for Carlisle (Feb 4)

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape

 

NH TO FOLLOW BET on SUNDAY:

4-40 LEOPARDSTOWN – REBEL OG – 0.5pt WIN @ 7/4 or better

Was slightly disappointing LTO on quicker ground and over shorter distance than debut run at Downpatrick. Mullins horses also a bit hit and miss then and now. But the bit of juice should help and so long as she does handle the distance, she is the one to beat in this. I have faith that the initial form was not deceiving to the eye. She goes off the list if she disappoints here.

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.625 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 2)

3-00 LEOPARDSTOWN – LA BAGUE AU ROI – 0.125point WIN @ 2/1 or better

 

Obviously a big call race again but I’m a huge La Bague Au Roi fan and have her ahead of Delta Work on my figures. The mare’s allowance should also help (although I’d fancy her without it) and I’d have been going big on this but for yesterday’s result. Happy to have it as my free bet on here knowing full well that English reputations go on the line against Irish ones. Going to enjoy shouting this one home (win or lose) after the Rugby I also just watched! The joys of watching, and in our own way participating in, top class sport! Just hope Dicky Johnson isn’t adversely affected by his fall on Saturday. I did think he was slightly outridden by Geraghty yesterday. Won’t want to let Russell get a similar plus!

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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