BOZmail – 3rd FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY FEBRUARY 3rd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.343 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.049 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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LESS IS MORE: Monday play

4-00 CARLISLE

Stays limited in choice on Monday sadly following the unwanted abandonment of Fontwell – the track I was targeting for my first back of the new cycle. Hey ho. The weather still in charge and this Mares Handicap Chase at Carlisle is no bad substitute – liking and having wider knowledge of Mare’s racing in general as I do.

The other qualifying race of the day – the 3-25 – was a fairly easy race read but unfortunately the market has read it similarly and prices are unplayable. This 4-00 is far more competitive and thus offers various angles.

Only Hidden Dilemma do I rule out of winning chance and other than that, race has a similar feel to Sunday’s with the exception of the second favourite here being a sounder proposition (Nortonthorpelegend drifted like a bargepole on Sunday and ran accordingly bringing my outsider’s race to pass after Hastrubal fell. Were we lucky in that? Never be sure but I felt that he was already showing the signs of those Sedgefield exertions with sketchy jumping. The weight I think would have told and Gangster was obviously a plot horse for the Greatrex stable who should be watched for a while now as they come right back into form).

The race here revolves around favourite Haul Us In again who is punished an even heftier 12lb for an easy LTO win at Uttoxeter in a race that more or less fell into her lap. Favourite Lamanver Odyssey – a previous to follow horse of mine – fell foul of a diabolical in running injury leaving Haul Us In to win unchallenged with three other fancied runners failing to handle the testing ground. Officially heavy but quite possibly dead ground again and the winning distance due to only the Russell horse being able to handle it again. Second in was a three pound out the handicap rag hence the form being even more flattering than Hastrubal’s was and 6/4 mighty short again and screaming to be taken on when you consider that Haul Us In is now 26lb higher than the previous chase win at Hexham mark. That caused by some good form over hurdles and no doubting you have a solid horse in Haul Us In but she’s been set a monster weight giving task here over the notoriously demanding Carlisle track. 

The only other horse carrying same weight is Holly Flight who is the race’s value as takes a biggish drop in class here after competing Listed races last twice. The former resulting in a decent second at Ayr and the latter in the race at Doncaster behind Lady Buttons. Them’s top mares races so she might easily be the class in the race and 8/1 is very tempting. She comes out top of my time comparison ratings too and has the champion elect in the saddle and the only drawback for her is that she has it yet to prove. Even so, at that price, you’d allow for that.

More proven class in the race comes from Longhousesignora whose only negative is that she has a rattling hurdle fall from LTO to overcome. Travels a long way for the effort and is owned by the redoubtable Nora’s Playmates! I’ll confess here and now that I am in love with Nora’s Playmates. Both as a name for a group of owners and the group of owners themselves. They are what owning racehorses is all about.

So two strong possible winners there and Skewiff can’t be dismissed either although fair to say she might prefer hurdles at this stage so is perhaps a tentative line dawn through on the possible winners list.

No such status for second fav Talkofgold however who gets over a stone from the fav and based on her penultimate start win at Hexham, that makes her seriously well in at the weights getting 9lbs from class horse Longhousesignora. That makes her the most likely winner of the race without how the race is run factors taken into account or on paper as you might say. 100/30 for her is also a bit short though for my taste given that she takes on three classy sorts and if I were backing in the race, I prefer the choice between Holly Flight and Longhousesignora but they are very tricky to split. In the end price and stable/jockey connections lends me to Holly Flight but it is very marginal. We have done well enough first two days however to risk a small (and I mean very small) first back of the cycle and although not a back in a back only race,I’ll risk it in an LIM with excellent cover from two competitors and a strong fav lay.  

Recommendation:

0.2 point LAY on HAUL US IN ( around 2.5 : upper value parameter 2.8)

0.05point BACK on HOLLY FLIGHT (around 9.0 or better)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 2/2 = 100%  Backs: 0/0

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Huntingdon (Feb 6)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – Entered at Huntingdon (Feb 6)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Mares Hurdle Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Saint De Reve

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. 

The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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