BOZmail – 3rd December

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the trial of the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY DECEMBER 3rd 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

12-45 MUSSELBURGH

 

Hands up and admit that I was wrong about Sunday’s bet and for those new to watching me at work perhaps well worth stating that unlike some tipsters, what you have to get used to with me is that I’m always truthfully up front and I never shirk my losers. I thought Pearl Royale would struggle to contain Ron’s Dream on the ground but the lay off was not an issue and although wobbling a bit on the stiff uphill finish had done enough galloping away to hold on whilst Ron’s Dream did jump a few fences poorly which cost her early. Was never really near enough to land a blow. We did at least get a Rule 4 reduction which limited the damage to previous day’s winnings but also of course made the LIM less attractive as a value bet.

But I did say less confident about it as a race read and that is info to keep in mind for the future. Less confident ones do win and more confident ones do lose but my staking plan is always reflective of how bullish I am and only those here for a play every day tend to indulge my less confident fare. You will have noted that my second best for Sunday also went down and although it tried, did not beat itself so just that kind of day. Destined to end with a small minus whatever.

Monday might also be that and is not a typical LIM race but it features a horse I know personally and well – a neighbour of mine – and is one I cannot ignore being posted at odds on. The Steward came to my local yard as a cast off from Dermot Weld which is a fairly typical Jimmy Moffat acquisition. He buys cast off flat racers cheaply to give them a go at hurdling and is actually pretty good at that game in general. But they are also not cast-offs for nothing and this fella – deemed good enough to compete in black type flat races for the Weld yard but having failed to cover himself in glory therein – has demonstrated an admirable consistency under Jimmy’s training method but has a total lack of acceleration now. Has some class you could argue but that inability to change pace in a race is worrying and in all the races I’ve seen him run for Jimmy, he has been completely unable to change pace when required. Specifically has been unable to accelerate at the finish of races having always got into contention. So travels ok at a canter but one paced at racing pace. Sound like an odds on shot to you?

Of course it is always about who such a horse is up against as they can win if things go their way and the opposition is poor. On the surface it does look like a winnable race has finally been found with nothing up against him with anything like his back form. The worry in backing The Steward here is the price – Moffat not known for landing odds on shots either and the Sporting Life tissue goes 4/9. Speaking as one who has already had his fingers burnt a couple of times by The Steward, I shall not be recouping much at 4/9. Paddy Power have opened 4/5 but I do think laying at less than that will be likely and I’m in for laying this time because aswell as my perceived observation of no acceleration, I think we also have a huge question mark over distance and his ability to stay it. Not in his breeding and I was on track the only time he attempted the step up in distance previously. June at Cartmel with Richard Johnson booked to ride and I wasn’t the only one who took that as a sign that Jimmy had found something out about the horse and that here was his chance to win at last. In fact the only race over hurdles he hasn’t finished second in! Third that day because when the sprint for home began, he was in perfect position to challenge as you’d expect under a Johnson ride. Asked to quicken, he found nowt and dropped 15 lengths back. Didn’t lose further ground so you could argue he did stay. But didn’t make any ground either so not in relation to his opposition. And that was 2m 6f. I’ll be fairly amazed if he stays 3 miles but Jimmy’s thinking is presumably in the change of jockey. Back to Henry Brooke who was on board first two rides for the stable and rides an excellent front running race for Jimmy and others. That second time out at Hexham was arguably very unlucky when he’d looked the winner and got to the front smoothly but got mugged on the line. Stiff uphill finish at Hexham and that failure to accelerate got him again. When challenged, could not respond with that extra bit of pace.

Add to that stable not firing. Bon Chic ran at Carlisle on Sunday and ran out of puff a long way out as all Jimmy’s have been doing past fortnight. The yard is desperate for a sign that they are coming in to form as their annual tilt at the Becher Chase comes up next weekend and they have one they have been preparing especially for the race aswell as Highland Chief who has won and placed in the race past two years. More on that when I see what happens here. If the Steward does win, I’ll be taking the Becher Chase seriously on Saturday. But desperation looks more likely to me.  

 

Not a 4/9 chance however thin the race and a favourite I’m happy to take on even at 4/5. The main market opponent is McCain’s Morraman and although LTO at Bangor was disappointing, if you are prepared to forgive that, the previous run at Sedgefield was pretty good and distance more likely to be his mettle. Seven pound claimer also a big plus as is the McCain record at the track. Not a value price for me at 11/8 though so my tentative back is on Sandy Thomson’s Glenlora. Not much form to go on but the LTO has been franked by the winner who won again NTO under a penalty and this is an unexposed sort that will certainly relish the step up in trip on breeding from a yard I rate highly and who also do extremely well at the track. As does Diane Sayer whose Tab Hogarth has little or nothing to recommend him except for being an inmate at her yard. If 66/1 shots are your thing, you could do worse in a race that won’t take a huge amount of winning against a favourite who has serious question marks against his name. Could dominate from the front under a strong Henry Brooke ride but will he get home or will he be a sitting duck to one of the claiming young girl riders behind?

 

Recommendation:

0.6pt LAY on THE STEWARD

0.15pt BACK on GLENLORA

 

**************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one. So 0.45pts returned to bank which is retained at 10 points thanks to superb never say die from Redditch again for second time in a week!)

 

STAGGERED FOOTBALL ACCA for SATURDAY December 1st:

FIRST LEG:

Southern League Central Division:

Redditch to beat Kings Lynn @ 9/5 or better – 0.25 pts

Redditch-Kings Lynn draw @ 29/10 or better – 0.2 pts – WON

 

We will start the second leg – free bet – stage of the staggered acca with a stake of 0.33pts (Saturday’s winnings). Watch this space for the advice as it emerges. May be next Saturday’s Redditch match at St Neots but could also be something else that emerges sooner or something later if the St Neots fixture is deemed not weapons grade after careful study during the week.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically always with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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