BOZmail 3rd DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

THURSDAY DECEMBER 3rd  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 117/164 = 71.34%  Backs : 33/102 = 32.35%

NO BET

Well, that was a surprising Wednesday result in classic LIM style. The unconsidered one comes to the rescue! Espoir De Romay looks a good horse so we won’t be laying that again and I’d say we did get a bit lucky. Redford Road has also been given his last chance and was very disappointing again despite a welter of money pouring on. I hope that wasn’t all ours!! Knowing Willie Twiston Davies, I’ll be guessing the stable went wild with him (and their bumper horse in the last). Worth noting that because it happens a lot. If they bet a NTD horse heavy, doesn’t mean he’s gonna win. They do have a rampant gamblerholic in their midst. At least I think that’s what he is. He may just be a crap tipster! Somebody from the yard keeps losing their shirt anyways!!

Our LIM protection highlighted again for what it is. THE cautious way to bet and I call the manifesto into action again on Thursday and call a NO BET day despite expecting a busy old week. The second research horse on the Falberto line is a non runner on Thursday and runs at Sedgefield on Friday instead. It looks a good line as you’ll have seen so we’ll play the patience game and wait for that. The research does look sound. Ironically the only qualifier over jumps in the UK on Thursday is the race Paricolor was contesting but he is also a non runner now. I looked at that race with him in it and had an angle but without him in it, the waters get muddied so I’ll pass that as a no opinion race. Which applies to the only other two qualifiers on the day also – one in Ireland and one on the all weather. 

Plenty for us to choose from on Friday so we’ll take a clear day off and prepare for that. Put a nice ring round the winnings from today’s two races – one of which was a play winnings up bet you’ll remember. His job now done and can be scratched from the To Follow list. Not a horse to follow now that he’s won!

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill – Entered for Exeter (Dec 4)

Al Dancer – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12) & King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law

Hitman – Entered for Exeter (Dec 4) & The Arkle (Mar 16)

First Flow – Entered for Tingle Creek,Sandown (Dec 5) & Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

Pepper Street – Entered for Sedgefield (Dec 4)

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW on WEDNESDAY:

12-20 LUDLOW – FALBERTO @ 11/4 – 0.15pt BACK – 1st

Backed @ 3.1 : P/L = +0.315points

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +51.6657points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.5668 points (+12.5668 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 49.0394 points (+41.0394 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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