BOZmail – 3rd AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY AUGUST 3rd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

4-40 DONCASTER

Taking on such short favs, you gotta expect 1 in 3 to go astray but must admit I felt pretty confident about Above and a furlong out he did look to be struggling to deliver but credit to him for tapping into his breeding and staying on strongly in the final half furlong to just outclass a game but lesser animal. Improvement forthcoming and that always a race read element difficult to quantify. As I say, stats and law of averages do say I’ll get 1 in 3 of them at least wrong. Gotta take it and keep bank management strategy robust.

Saturday never an easy day with so much to go at but often tricky stuff to fathom. Worked hard again at this but feel less confident than I did yesterday when I got it wrong. So that’s to be kept in mind.

I’m very tempted to go strategic here and try the double lay for very little liability because all the pundits and the form make it a two horse race but I’m less sure.

Heath Charnock is very unexposed and could be anything on turf when the ground is soft having run well three times on the all weather. How soft will it be on Saturday? Not much rain forecast but there has been a fair bit all week. Starting to dry? If so that helps the two favs particularly Tabdeed who scorched up when last seen but has no soft ground form and a 302 day lay off to overcome. Could be very good and was ante-post fav for the Wokingham before going wrong and plenty of question marks now. Oxted was in the race won by Waldpfad that made my to follow but the ground was good to soft that day and after being well poised a furlong out, Oxted did fade and quite possibly didn’t enjoy the conditions.No sign of a soft ground action. Has raced on it here before and seemingly did ok finishing fifth but again no sign of the strong soft ground finish. Waldpfad form  was a very strong race so all about whether he does the ground for Oxted.

Arguably the worst form on soft is shown by Bernardo O’ Reilly but Goodwood patently didn’t suit and he has two excuses for poor runs here when left at the start once and caught out by too quick a ground the other whilst his four wins have all come on good to soft the last being an impressive quickening up at the business end to suggest that if it doesn’t start too soft, he’ll be ok. Indeed his early start as a juvenile on soft reads ok and at least equal to Oxted (who to be fair has run in much better company since). Not exactly well treated at the weights but one of those where might actually be the one who gets his ground if the forecast is correct.

10/1 in a four horse race makes that worth a play with the unexposed Heath Charnock as LIM cover and a graduated double lay on the front two where getting shortest you can on each might even bring them to cancelling the bet out in the event of one of them winning. A creative play for Saturday!  

Recommendations:

0.4pt LAY on OXTED (around 2.0 but shorter if it appears and no greater than 2.2)

0.3pt LAY on TABDEED (around 2.37 but shorter if it appears and no greater than2.5)

0.1pt BACK on BERNARDO O'REILLY (around 11.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 138/204 = 67.64% :   BACKS: 42/140 = 30%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee 

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Lepoardstown (Aug 8)& Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You

Charle Brune – Entered for Galway (Aug 4)

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial – Entered for Chester (Aug 5)

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

Will shout if or when another starter emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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