BOZmail – 3rd APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY APRIL 3rd 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

4-35 MARKET RASEN

April up and running as I get one right that the market got wrong. I didn’t manage best prices as wasn’t around for the full price watch so well done to those who outscored my prices. Plenty around better than mine and Cafe Espresso touched an inexplicable 4.0 in running having led the whole way. Such was the market’s misplaced confidence! Good for us.

A similar low stake play Wednesday as I wind up for the start of the next staggered acca at Aintree. More details tomorrow and I will be on the road during Aintree so watch out for some different posting times. Friday’s mail might not be out until Friday morning.

Bit more value aimed for Wednesday as this is a very competitive 7 runner mare’s handicap hurdle with plenty around to beat topweight fav Carrolls Milan who carries a penalty for winning LTO.Peters Cousin set to improve for step up in distance and Jet Set very dangerous if she stands up. Dark horse Big Penny on second outing since wind op and Jonjo always dangerous on wind up to festival time. The one for value however is Tristan Davidson’s Rubenesque who fell when beat LTO but has good chance on form before that and the Davidson yard is noted for strings of winners when it hits form and 2/2 and running to 100% form in past fortnight bodes well. Trains just up the road from me and this one has a time figure/rating that gives him a serious chance against the fav who ostensibly carries a further 7lb penalty this time out given claiming rider when winning LTO. Gives us a serious chance of another pay day to build the bank for Aintree.

RECOMMENDATION:

0.2pt LAY on CARROLLS MILAN (around 3.5 : not greater than 4.4)

0.1pt BACK on RUBENESQUE

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 76/107 = 71.02% :   BACKS: 18/69 = 26.08%

NH HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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