BOZmail – 31st OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY OCTOBER 31st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.9887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.236 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

2-20 STRATFORD

Stopped the rot on Wednesday and feel a bit unlucky not to land a good back winner as Todd rallied and kept at it but was just outpointed by a deserving winner. So we will exit October in plus now. Not the healthy plus I was planning on the 21st the way things were shaping but a profit’s a profit and we must remain content and head into November with the head still held high. Two months to go and traditionally a good two months if the weather stays non-extreme!

Able to post this Wednesday evening after all as Stourbridge Library has Wi-Fi. Playing in a crunch Worcestershire grudge chess match tonight but managed to get a couple of hours on this before kick-off.

And what looks a head to head between the two with chasing experience can go to Black Op on my time and ratings assessment. Lisnagar Oscar comes from the still super firing Rebecca Curtis yard and does also have some smart hurdle form but is still learning the jumps game and whilst rallying well to finish just a head down on debut, did commit a few jump errors and might have to play second fiddle here to Black Op whose chase form is already at a high level. Race fitness and jockey booking also favours the Curtis runner whilst the Tom George stable is firing low on the running to form % so not going over board on this. But do expect Lisnagar to get backed under Bowen so it could be very short in which case, Black Op does represent value with good chase experience and a clear form book plus. Both the third to Lostintranslation and the third to Defi Du Seuil read well in the context of this.

Has also had a wind op since coming behind Paisley Park at the Festival. More top form. Might prove serious value in this but I play safish by laying Lisnagar Oscar to keep the three debutantes – all from good outfits – on as LIM cover.  

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on LISNAGAR OSCAR (around 2.25 or lower)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 181/277 = 65.34% :   BACKS: 52/189 = 27.51%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

21st:  +0.975 (+2.766) Back @ 4.9

22nd:  +0.196 (+2.962) Lay @ 1.8

23rd:   +0.146 (+3.108) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 4.2

24th:   +0.196 (+3.304) Lay @ 4.3

25th:   -0.092 (+3.212) Lays @ 1.96 & 2.36 : Back @ 15.0

26th:   -0.18 (+3.032) Lay @ 2.2

27th:   +0.094 (+3.126) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 4.0

28th:   -0.555 (+2.571) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 5.0

29th:   -0.244 (+2.327)  Lay @ 1.96 : Back @ 9.0

30th:   +0.145 (+2.472)  Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 7.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi Entered for Wetherby (Nov 2)

Unwin VC 

Commodore Barry – Entered for Wetherby (Nov 1)

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra 

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus – Entered for Uttoxeter (Nov 1)

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano – Entered for Wetherby (Nov 1)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa

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NH TO FOLLOW HORSE AT FAKENHAM:

2-40 NUBE NEGRA – WON

Very impressive again. One to keep solidly in the notebooks for the seasons top novice chases.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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