BOZmail 31st OCTOBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY OCTOBER 31st  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +37.5671 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.9028 points (+7.9028 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 39.0498 points (+31.0498 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7635 points (-0.2365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 99/137 = 72.26%  Backs : 26/86 = 30.23%

NO BET

That would be my fourth LIM forecast of the week if I did but tip them! Shall be starting that practice as part of my revamp for the 2021 cycle! Just need to work out the staking based on results and it is perhaps a practice for the peak times when form and eye are in.

Snow Leopardess ran a fine second to the talented Skelton horse. Both make To Follow list.

I have had a good look at the 1-07 at Ayr as Saturday’s qualifying LIM but have decided the fav is a bit long to take on. It is a competitive sort of race with only Book of Invasions ruled out so fairish LIM fare but the heavy ground might also play to the fav (as we saw on Thursday) and so I’ll stay tight to end the month with a busy day’s trading to be done (see below) and a mega acca to end a more respectable month with!

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18 (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54 (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1 (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

21st:  +0.147  (+1.7907) Lay @ 2.9 : Back @ 11.5

22nd: +0.2154 (+2.0061) Lay @ 3.6

23rd: NO BET

24th:  +0.049  (+2.0551) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 5.5

25th: NO BET

26th:  +0.2156 (+2.2707) Lays @ 1.7 & 3.8 : Back @ 10.5

27th:   -0.194   (+2.0767) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 9.2

28th:  +0.275   (+2.3517) Back @ 3.75

29th:   -0.35     (+2.0017) Lay @ 2.00 : Back @ 9.4

30th:   +0.147  (+2.1487) Lay @ 2.28 : Back @ 15.5

31st:   NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

(I am winding the horses to follow on the flat down now for the winter. Been problematic in 2020 as you know, Muker apart! Royal Air Force is an ante-post recommendation for the 2021 Derby @ 66/1 and we do look like we are going to get a run out of Battleground at the Breeders Cup! That is a bonus. 

Will come under scrutiny for the 2021 cycle. Am looking at ways to revamp. Will keep an eye on all weather over the winter for LIM purpose and may instigate a special all weather to follow list. May not. Still in the see how things go category!    BOZ)

Muker

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Breeders Cup Juvenile (Nov 6) & Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething 

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

12-47 ASCOT – STRAW FAN JACK @ 6/1 – 0.25pt BACK

2-10 WETHERBY – MRS HYDE @ 20/1 – 0.25pt BACK

3-05 ASCOT – CAIUS MARCIUS @ 14/1 – 0.15pt BACK

3-55 WETHERBY – CALUM GILHOOLEY @ 10/1  – 0.15pt BACK

Get the best prices that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered

All four in mega competitive races as you’d expect on a Saturday at this time of year. The two most interesting are Straw Fan Jack and particularly Mrs Hyde and I start with enhanced back stakes on those two with the proviso to leave some scope for possible in running trading and the 1.01 and 1.1 type trades especially. Both I think have a chance of being involved at the business end. Similar applies to the other two but with slightly lower expectation and all four should aim to be pre race traded if good back prices are obtained and there is sufficient downward price drifting to enable a solid trade that also gives some scope for latter stage in running trade potential.

The BOZ also raids his acca bank for a smidgeon just in case they all perform to their optimum as is always a possibility! A fixed odds 0.0025pt each way acca recommended. That’s 25p each way in English money! Just in case. Cumulative odds are astronomical (6,063/1) so no need to get greedy. Still on a bank management day to end the successful month of October!   Total Spend = 0.005pt

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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