BOZmail – 31st MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY MARCH 31st 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

5-40 ASCOT

Finish a good month with an odds on in a Hunter Chase where I actually have a dark horse back to beat Virak aswell. The Paul Nicholls owned pointer hasn’t suffered since his move into the point field winning all three in a hack canter. This will be a different test however and he has to give 11lb to a horse who was behind Road to Rome (4th in the Foxhunters) in a Hunter Chase at Ludlow in a time that would seriously win any point race that you could name. Queen Olivia also has the charming Lilly Pinchin on board. She is no mean rider and was 8/1 when I first started researching this. Down to 13/2 already and likely to be backed further.

I say this is one to get on as early as you can.

In terms of LIM cover for the lay on the fav should Queen Olivia misfire, we have In Arrears and especially Silvergrove who also both get weight. Flaming Charmer also has a chance with a notably favourable time rating in the race.

RECOMMENDATION:

0.6pt LAY on VIRAK (Around 1.7: not greater than 2.0)

0.1pt BACK on QUEEN OLIVIA

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

22nd:   +0.14 (+8.5885) LAY @ 2.5 (in running): BACK @ 5.8

23rd:    -0.66 (+7.9285) LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 34.0

24th:    +0.596(+8.5245) LAY @ 2.5 : BACK @ 4.02

25th:    +0.24 (+8.7645) LAY @ 1.99

26th:     +0.09 (+8.8545) LAY @ 4.4 : BACK @ 4.2

27th:     +0.539(+9.3935) LAY @ 1.6

28th:     -0.336 (+9.0575) LAY @ 2.12

29th:     NO PLAY

30th:     +0.144 (+9.2015) LAY @2.2 : BACK @ 6.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 75/105 = 71.42% :   BACKS: 17/67 = 25.37%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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