BOZmail – 31st MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY MARCH 31st  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8778 points (temporarily suspended)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2384 points

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

TUESDAY play in Crisis Corner

21-45 WILL ROGERS DOWNS – Race 6

I thought Staunch Elaborator ran an absolute classic and if he hadn’t missed the gate, he might have won. Still thought there was an outside chance at the top of the stretch as you could see the fav wobbling. Well done if you got some of the 170.0 matched on the exchanges and the 90.0 and 60.0 saw a few takers as well.I left my play late and managed 54.0 and was happy with that in tandem with odds on lay the fav. 

So the win streak extends to three and if I can keep it going for a week and the fixtures look likely to continue through April, I might start upping stakes a bit. Keeping to this strategy though. Lay favs and try and land one of the whoppers. They do come in US racing – more so at this level and that was a good race for playing the market as it turned out. Well done if you did back the winner. I do feel I’m getting an LIM handle on it again now and its nice to have summat to follow ain’t it!

Sorted Tuesday’s already with Who’s Fooling Who the likely fav under top jock Ken Tohill. Coming down in class and could be very short again as the clear top rated. This is weak fare again however and Whimsical Tale was pretty impressive LTO and is a worthy sort to take the fav on with. Spirited Lady might be the outsider I’d side with receiving weight as a 3 year old again but has lay off to overcome so simple lay only day on Tuesday.

The fourth of the Disclosing Secrets articles reproduced below.

Recommendation:

£2 LAY on WHO’S FOOLING WHO

The Boz’s March US & Irish Racing LIM results:  (£100 bank)

18th:  -£4-10 (-£4-10) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 21.0

19th:   NO BET

20th:  +£2-94 (-£1-16) Lay @ 3.0

21st:   NO BET

22nd:  -£1-75 (-£2-91) Lays @ 2.25 & 10.5

23rd:  +£2-94 (+£0-03) Lay @ 1.79

24th:    -£1-52 (-£1-49) Lay @ 1.76

25th:    IRISH RACING ABANDONED

26th:    NO BET

27th:   +£2-45 (+£0-96) Lay @ 3.15

28th:   NO BET

29th:   +£1-96 (+£2-92) Lay @ 2.9

30th:   +£0-96 (+£3-88) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 54.0

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

***************************************************************************************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March (truncated): + 1.5282 points

*******************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

***********************************************************************************

DISCLOSING SECRETS 

Tip Number Four: MAKE YOUR OWN MARKETS

I’ve banged on about this for many years and met many whose faces scrunch up in disgust at the work involved. Seriously, Boz, you never have a bet without pricing up the market first to see whether or not what you are being offered is value? Fundamental to me. Why on earth would you take odds that are lower than you perceive to be value and how will you know either way if you haven’t done your own pricing first before viewing what is on offer. And often I also re-form my own markets to factor in significant perceived market moves. Especially in horse race betting.

When I wrote as a non league football pundit in 2004 I highlighted the Histon versus Leeds FA Cup fixture televised live on terrestrial TV. My performance ratings (which I kept on all football teams both league and non-league when I was betting therein) had Histon rated at 79 and Leeds United at 98 which equated to no more than a one goal differential. My uninfluenced market had Histon at 2.87 and Leeds as 1.8 favourites. Not seven years earlier Leeds were a 160 rated Premier League team and Histon a 35 rated Eastern Counties team which equated to a six goal differential then and I can’t swear that’s what bookmakers used on the day but Histon were a whopping 6.0 to win at home on the tight wet Glasswold pitch and Leeds were 1.44 despite not fielding the injured Jermaine Beckford – pretty much the only top class player and goalscorer in the Leeds team of that time. An FA cup shock was on the cards as a distinct possibility. Histon won 1-0. Had they lost 1-0 I would have still been happy. I’d got my value because I’d made my market and knew which way to bet for the value.

My 2017 example of this is a five horse Novice Chase at Worcester on August 1st. It featured the 2015 World Hurdle winner Cole Harden as the 4/7 favourite. He’d already run his Chase debut as odds on favourite beaten into second by the admittedly subsequently impressive Sir Ivan. He’d shown that day however that the successful transition into competent chaser was not a gimme. Ran from the front as is his want but often laboured over his fences and expending more energy than necessary so that he was flagging at the business end. In short, he jumped fences like a hurdler and that is often a bad sign. I was dead keen to lay him at odds on at Worcester. It was my Less is More race of the day because Nachi Falls was also in the field. A horse I’d tracked in the 2016/17 NH season. Won a class 2 hurdle at Market Rasen in September 2016 and a maiden at Fontwell just before when he’d come on to my radar. Not a hurdler in Cole Harden’s class but a brave jumper who I thought would go on to big things. As did trainer Nigel Hawke who entered him ambitiously the rest of the year only to suffer several burst blood vessels and run a string of sub par efforts. Rested and with Sean Bowen up, he wasn’t fancied by the market and was SP 20/1 and traded as high as 23.0 on Betfair before the off and 34.0 in running. In a five horse race remember. I had him as a longshot but my faith in those early perceptions is never wholly dented and I was pricing up at just 9/1. I had Cole Harden 2/1 and the disappointing Tizzard second fav Exxaro at 9/2 (he started 11/4).David Pipe’s Magie du Mai started 8/1 third fav and no hoper Brown Revel was 100/1. The market revolved totally around Cole Harden who had also finished 2nd to Uknowhatimeanharry in the Jan 2017 Cleeve Hurdle but who I considered a decidedly suspect jumper of a fence. Can’t say I was mega confident that Nachi Falls would win. Looked an anybody’s race to me. Just knew I had value laying Cole Harden heavy at 1.6 and backing Nachi to modest money at 23.0. I’d made my market and I knew I had value.

Nachi Falls won head in chest by 12 lengths (despite a heartstopping less than fluent leap at the last). Cole Harden ran from the front again and traded at 1.3 in running but looked a knackered beast three out only to find a second wind to stay on for third after the field had come past two out. Maybe he will get the hang of jumping fences eventually and he certainly doesn’t lack resolution nor stamina. Speed over the fences is his issue. I shall watch and see from here with money already made. Nachi Falls has been out twice since at short odds and failed to win with his penalty. No world beater but a good horse to back when the price is right.

The bet came off because I’d made my market and thus knew my value.

The final BOZ’s tips for BEST BETTING PRACTICE article will appear tomorrow.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *