BOZmail – 31st JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

THURSDAY JANUARY 31st 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

3-10 SOUTHWELL

Writing this initially quite early thanks to Ruby’s race being abandoned due to weather thus securing a low return for January. No Verdana Blue this month and four non runners instead which typifies January especially as Ruby and Lillington were ones I was seriously looking forward to watching. Such is fortune at times and the trick is not letting it lead to a dent in profit. Just about managed that this month but it is out of the way now. Only usually September and occasionally November to rival January in the awkward stakes and to come out of them with profit, however miniscule, is not to be sniffed at. At £100 a point we’ve protected December profits and still paid the electricity bill!!

 

Weather suggests Wincanton and Fakenham may also struggle to stage meetings on final day of the month so I’ve swerved to the sprint handicap at Southwell as a small final play and initial thoughts before the tissue comes out is that I’m against the two topweights – Sandridge Lad and Coolagh Magic – with their penalties to carry. Sandridge Lad in particular is held on my time figures by the course and distance winning novice Scale Force on his handicap debut. Might prove value but I’ll wait for prices to emerge before writing my final conclusions and staking advice. Also being done early though because I am out involved in sport myself Wednesday evening as a crunch derby chess match – Barrow v Ulverston takes place tonight. I’m up against a nemesis of mine I’ve never yet beaten in six attempts but managed a draw LTO so the money is on me to finally break my duck! We shall see.

Back at Southwell, bottom weight Temple of Wonder is the dark horse on surface over shorter than he has been running. Unlucky here over six furlongs when stopped in his run in the home stretch and proved he took to the surface making him a possible value play. As I say, I’ll write a conclusion and stake recommendations soon as tissue emerges.

 

Surprisingly, Coolagh Magic is the short priced tissue fav at 5/4 and 6/4 and he’s the lay at that with doubts over distance and surface plus his penalty to carry. Scale Force is as short as 2/1 and my idea of the winner although Temple of Wonder the undoubted value in the race.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on COOLAGH MAGIC

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 40/52 = 76.92% :   BACKS: 7/32 = 21.87%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 15.0375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Sandown (Feb 2) & Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo – Entered for Carlisle (Feb 4)

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for Sandown & Wetherby (Feb 2)

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Sandown (Feb 2)

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.625 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 2)

 

Awaiting the weapons grade selection to follow on from Leg 1. Will shout as soon as it appears

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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