BOZmail 31st DECEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

THURSDAY DECEMBER 31st  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 125/181 = 69.06%  Backs : 37/116 = 31.89%

12-25 LINGFIELD

All hail Harry Bannister who really is becoming an excellent jockey. Gave that an excellent ride and I got the ground read right to make a bit more December reparation. 

Did consider calling a NO BET for final day of 2020 with Uttoxeter abandoned and no qualifiers at Warwick but have changed my mind after a decent day’s profits on Wednesday and gonna have a final fling for the year back on the flat given that I’ve found one I like (on paper at least) and it would be nice to have a go at reaching the 60 points for the year total before we go into the January extension month. I will decide whether all weather racing is part of that after I see how we do here! Still a bit tentative with flat stuff but I have been watching in preparation for the January/February efforts when I do traditionally get involved more on the flat as the NH starts to get more weather and ground affected.

The trouble with this play I’ve found is that I don’t actually know who Callum Hutchinson is and he rides my on paper fancy Saaheq. There is also Amanda Perrett stable without a winner in months to concern us but I’m guessing on both issues that is why we are being offered 4/1. Perhaps those of you more conversant with the flat will check out the form and know more about how serious those issues may be. Stable form is only a problem if chronic as it is always part of getting a value price against a talking horse fav and Callum Shepherd gets us 7lb weight allowance and is riding winners so could be ok by the looks of it. On the face of it to me, Saaheq looks to have an 11lb weight turnaround on The Greatestshowman for a just over a length beating when they met on December 13th and that makes Saaheq serious value against the likely odds on or even money fav.

I play at those prices with Recon Mission good LIM cover dropping down in class.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on THE GREATESTSHOWMAN (around 2.0 or as low as you can get)

0.15pt BACK on SAAHEQ (around 5.0 or bigger if you get offered)

Get best prices you can as always.

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount 

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 19)

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo 

Leoncavallo

Oscar RoseEntered for  Cheltenham (Mar 19)

Charm Offensive 

Return Ticket(flat track) -Entered for Musselburgh (Jan 1)

Boothill 

Lilly Pedlar

Getaway Luv

Across The Line 

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

Shang Tang 

Snow Leopardess 

Dusart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered at Wetherby (Dec 27)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Cheddleton 

Le Bateau

My Drogo – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 17)

Allart – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16 & 18)

Nube Negra

BOZmail Winter All Weather Horses To Follow:

Sealed Offer

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NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on WEDNESDAY:

12-45 MARKET RASEN – ACROSS THE LINE @ 3/1 -0.15pt BACK – 1st

Backed @ 3.5 :hedged 0.075pt@2.12before off &1pt@1.01 in play:P/L =+0.2753pts

                                          –  GET YOUR OWN @ 7/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 2nd

Backed @ 7.4 :hedged 0.05pt @ 4.2 before off & 0.5pt @1.4 in play:P/L= +0.441pts

I couldn’t have asked for a better final trade opportunity for 2020 and an excellent practice opportunity for all those joining in the TRADE PAPER project next year! Let me know how you got on, those sharing their practice efforts. My play was far from perfect mainly because my starting stakes were so low. They could easily have been increased when you saw what the market was doing. Absolutely smashed the prices of both horses and now we’ve seen the race, we know why! One worth watching again and reviewing your play against because that long Market Rasen run in highlighted in my Trade paper document came very much into play again. Keilan Woods looked to have little chance of catching the leaders a furlong out but great work by an increasingly impressive strong young jockey to just fail by a neck. I thought he’d get there or thereabouts and had my 1.4 matched but not my 1.1 nor my 1.01 (they did go as low as matching 1.17) and you’ll see I had to pay a quid back with the 1.01 I left on Harry Skelton who also rode a stellar race. No begrudging that. I thought he was gonna get collared!

One thing I forgot to write into the document I published was the 50% hedge pre race when you want to go half trader half gambler which was the option I went for here when I saw the market smashing into both prices. I could also have upped starting stakes as both stables were obviously mega keen. You do risk an overall loss on the trade taking that route hence the half gambler description (if horse falls early for instance). No question ever of that here as both horses trained to the whistle and backed as such and provided a stirring finish. Well done if you thought of covering the CSF as part of your play. Didn’t pay huge ISP because of the price smashes (good value early on the exchanges I’m told) and I never even considered it! Too busy watching the market in the minutes before the off!  

You could claim that my biggest imperfection was making less on the horse I fancied more to win but splitting hairs I think when they both come in and more than anything, this PROFIT AT THE DEATH APPROACH is more about winning from your losers than your winners. If the fancy is strong that one will win, always worth becoming 100% gambler really. I was on my way to that once when I saw the price smashes but was not even 1% gambler when I wrote my copy on Tuesday night. Such is the trading world. Always gotta be watching the market!

And that does wrap up trading on the BOZmail for the 2020 cycle.No need to emphasize how important it has been this year. My scores have it making nearly 600% on starting bank as opposed to poor old LIM languishing around 65%!

One month to go for the latter however as we move into the January lockdown extension month on Friday. All trading will be kept off that now that the Australian tennis Open is also not going to feature thereon. January always a tricky month and I have decided to have a purist LIM month instead and save the trading for the TRADE PAPER project starting in March. Total focus on my daily LIM for a month to see if we can’t get it up nearer to a 100%  profit on bank by the end of the January extension.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

8th:    -0.374   (-0.352) Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 9.0

9th:   +0.7056 (+0.3536) Back @ 7.0

10th:  +0.049  (+0.4026) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @ 9.4

11th:  +0.098  (+0.5006) Lay @ 4.5

12th:   -0.225   (+0.2756) Lay @ 2.5

13th:   +0.882  (+1.1576) Back @ 7.0

14th:    +0.147 (+1.3046) Lay @ 1.76 : Back @ 100.0

15th:    NO BET

16th:    +0.0735 (+1.3781) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 300.0

17th:     -0.13      (+1.2481) Lays @ 3.3 & 5.5

18th:    +0.186   (+1.4341) Lay @ 2.3 

19th:     -0.4375 (+0.9966) Lay @ 3.25 : Back @ 5.3

20th:     -0.278   (+0.7186) Lay @ 2.52 : Back @ 4.9

21st:     NON RUNNER

22nd:    -0.162   (+0.5566) Lays @ 2.9 & 2.52 : Backs @ 6.4 & 9.2

26th:     -0.253   (+0.3036) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 6.4

27th:    +0.147   (+0.4506) Back @ 2.5

28th:      NO BET

29th:     +0.2021(+0.6527) Back @ 3.75

30th:     +0.147  (+0.7997) Lay @ 2.08

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +58.7596points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 33.1705 points (+13.1705 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 55.5496 points (+47.5496 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.1885 points (-0.8115 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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