BOZmail – 31st DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY DECEMBER 31st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +18.8032 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +70.663 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

12-40 PUNCHESTOWN

Long way to go on Monday to find out both fancies were unfit! The market would have told me same if I’d stayed at home but at least I got a splash of fresh air. And a telling off from the stewards for taking my professional camera on to the course! Birthday present so I thought I’d give it a try out but need to renew my media permit before they’ll let me! Must do that before Sedgefield on the 10th.Note to self!

So modest play which the market got very much right. The lay was a bit of a risk as it turned out but worked out ok. 5.2 is about as big as I ever want to go on a lay – even at buttons stakes!

Don’t forget that Tuesday is the final day for current members to sign up to next year’s service at the discounted price. Big price hike on January 1st! Still a few current member places vacant.

Final LIM of the 2019 cycle is a hop over the pond to Ireland on a day of few qualifiers. Not been able to find the corker I was hoping for. Think maybe we had that on Sunday. Interesting race though this and I do know one of the runners quite well – Kupatana – from his time at Paul Nicholls’ yard. Wears tongue tie here and can be expected to better first two Irish runs on better ground but wouldn’t be my idea of favourite for this and I think he can be taken on giving weight as likely fav under Blackmore for De Bromhead. Value call against her is Margaret Mullins’ Agusta Gold who comes out better on my times and has run some classy races herself. Gets eight pound off Kupatana which should tell. Willie Mullins’ Salsaretta is the dark horse of the race, harder to assess but feared simply because of connections. May also go off fav and is the preferred of the front two given Kupatana’s limp efforts in Ireland so far.

The clue for that may well be Nicholls’ connections’ content to let the mare go. I think maybe her UK form flattered her and they knew that. How it looks to me! 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on KUPATANA (around 3.0 : upper value parameter 4.0)

0.1pt BACK on AGUSTA GOLD (around 5.5 if you can get it)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 218/326 = 66.87% :   BACKS: 59/218 = 27.06%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

7th:   +0.898 (+0.942) Lay @ 3.13 : Back @ 7.04

8th:    -0.526 (+0.418) Lay @ 2.88 : Back @ 4.1

9th:    -0.2275(+0.1905) Lay @ 1.91

10th:   +0.245 (+0.4355) Lay @3.35

11th:    +0.047 (+0.4825) Lay @ 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

12th:    NON RUNNER

13th:    +0.294 (+0.7765) Lay @ 2.86

14th:    +0.147 (+0.9235) Lay @ 1.8

15th:    +0.4555 (+1.379) Lay @ 2.44 : Back @ 3.25

16th:    +0.294 (+1.673) Lay @ 4.0

17th:    +0.196 (+1.869)  Lay @ 2.88

18th:    +0.096 (+1.965) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 9.0

19th:    RACE ABANDONED

20th:     -0.33 (+1.635) Backs @ 2.02 & 12.0

21st:     +0.096 (+1.731) Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 11.0

26th:     -0.67 (+1.061)  Lay @ 3.85 : Back @ 4.4

27th:     +0.49 (+1.551) Lay @ 2.98

28th:     +0.225(+1.776) Back @ 1.9

29th:     +1.176(+2.952) Back @ 5.8

30th:     +0.196(+3.148) Lay @ 5.2

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Kaizer* – Entered for Musselburgh (Jan 1)

Tea Clipper* 

Nube Negra – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 10)

Black Op – Entered for RSA,NOVICES & Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Supreme Novices,Ballymore & Albert Bart 

Nordano – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 1)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa* 

Vinndication –Entered for Cheltenham Gold Cup

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Ryanair & Gold Cup at Cheltenham

Cat Tiger – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 1)

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 1)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10)

Magic of Light

Defi Sacre 

TO FOLLOW HORSES TO TRADE at TAUNTON on MONDAY:

1-15 – FLIC OU VOYOU @ around 15/8 – 0.25pt BACK – 2nd

(Backed @ 1.9 : Hedged @ 1.6 before the off) = P/L  0

3-30 – NORMANDY SOLDIER @ 11/4 -0.25pt BACK – 2nd

(Backed @ 4.4 : Hedged @ 3.45 before the off) = P/L 0

Flic Ou Voyou had every chance and that was his last chance. Looks to lack resolution and comes off the to follow list for now. Might have been beaten by one as the race was difficult to evaluate in that respect so I’ll keep an eye on the form but also possible that it is wasn’t a race of any depth and one really that Flic should have won.

Wasn’t overly impressed by the winner. He just ran truer.

Normandy Soldier ran well and beat the Johnson danger but also found one too good so that handicapper may have him now. Inclined to give him one more go however so stays on the list and was a decent advert for the Cat Tiger and Welsh Saint form on New Year’s Day.

Overall, good call to trade the pair on Monday. Nothing gained but nothing lost.

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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