BOZmail – 31st AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY SIX:

SATURDAY AUGUST 31st  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +10.1282 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

4-50 NEWTON ABBOT:

Not found an LIM in the tennis once more so had a quick scan of the horse racing world and found this Handicap Chase at Newton Abbot to consider. My reasoning centres around the Christian Williams yard which I perceive to be out of kilter. Fav Game Line is carrying his penalty and over further and decidedly unfancied by the Boz who will take Midnight Magic of the front two with Manofthemountain as debut cover. The value back however lies with the other Christian Williams runner Primal Focus who has had a wind op, tries a further that seems much more in line with his breeding and has won over already. And looks a possible candidate to win if the yard is ready to come back on line. So following price of double yard entry as much as anything but the jockey bookings also attract. The race may well be run in a team tactics sense.

Tennis bet of the day is the projected next leg of the staggered acca (see below) given that Friday’s outcome is not yet known.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on GAME LINE (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.2)

0.1pt BACK on PRIMAL FOCUS (around 8.5)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

19th:         -0.18 (+2.173) Lay @ 1.9

20th:         -0.35 (+1.823) Back @2.24

21st:         -0.4055(+1.4175) Lay @ 1.47 : Back @ 11.5

22nd:        +0.145 (+1.5625) Lay @1.27 : Back @ 4.3

23rd:          -0.42 (+1.1425) Lay @1.44 : Back @ 5.0

24th:          NON RUNNER

25th:          +0.045 (+1.1875) Lay @ 1.89 : Backs @ 20.0 & 6.6

26th:           -0.268 (+0.9195) Lay @ 1.67

27th:           +0.294 (+1.2135) Lay @ 1.74

28th:            -0.13 (+1.0835) Lay @ 1.26

29th:            +0.392(+1.4755) Lay @1.24

30th:             NO PLAY DAY

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 152/228 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 44/154 = 28.57%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.9386 points.

THE FINAL 2019 Staggered  Acca number 18: (LEGS 3&4)

US OPEN WOMEN’s TENNIS 3rd ROUND MATCH on FRIDAY:

Qiang WANG to beat Fiona FERRO @ 1.45 – 0.5pt BACK

Fairly happy this is grade A. 3-1 back score and 3-0 on hard court. Qiang is a real hardcourt specialist and top 20 now. Ferro is ok but clay is where she would have a chance. This should put the acca bank back in the black. 

US OPEN WOMEN’s TENNIS 3rd ROUND MATCH on SATURDAY:

Donna VEKIC to beat Yulia PUTINTSEVA @ 1.43

My bet of the day for Saturday and placed as leg 4 of the final acca using balance of bank over 10 points – assuming Leg 3 has won – as the stake. Should leg 3 go down,final staggered acca of the year is over. 

More news anon.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

SERENA (backed at 6.8 – laid at 6.4) Current P/L = +0.6 points

IGA SWIATEK                                                                ELIMINATED

CORI GAUFF                                                                  = +7.5 points

SOFIA KENIN                                                                 = +9.25 points

DANIELLE COLLINS                                                    ELIMINATED

REST OF THE FIELD                                                    = 0 points  

The two good 2nd round things still in. The two tougher matched out. See what happens over next two days before planning any further steps.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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