BOZmail 31st AUGUST

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

MONDAY AUGUST 31st  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +13.4627 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.747 points (+4.747 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 18.3097 points (+10.3097 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 74/104 = 71.15%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

NO BET

I’d forgotten when I wrote no more flat racing that Southwell on Monday was an all weather flat meet and that Samsons Reach’s entry was on the flat. No idea why that should be as his flat career has always been trailing round at the back getting fit for a tilt over hurdles. Samuel Drinkwater ran him on the flat as first race for him at Ayr and he did run ok. But he’s on my to follow again as a hurdler (and a key one) and I can only presume Drinkwater knows what he’s doing and isn’t just pursuing better prize money. Who knows at the moment. Ellison also runs a jumper as short priced fav in the race so I’m presuming that’s what it is. But mayhem going on at the moment with fixtures and entries. Shortlisters should note that Sedgefield has moved from Sep 3rd to Sep 4th.

You can probably rip that September schedule up. We’ll go from day to day. Winging it just like the BHA and Government obviously are. No way we are heading back to old normality yet. In fact it looks to me like financial chaos is just about to begin.

So no LIM on Monday. We have tennis instead and I will do Samsons Reach as either a back or trade after I’ve studied on the to follow section (see below). But I’m sticking to no more LIM on the flat in September. Come what may. Might be more NO BET days because of that but I’ll be at the tennis and using that as my cover.  

I have also decided to meld my scores for 2020 after August despite all this uncertainty. No longer seeing it as a Part One and Part Two 2020 cycle. I’ll adapt and do best I can from the winging version we must now live with. August restored my faith that despite odd blips I should still be able to cope albeit with probably reduced targets and expectations for this year. We shall over come!

Pretty unlucky with Return Ticket. Well done if you hedged him in running.You are learning from The Boz if you did! Was on at 22.0 before the off and traded as low as 2.18 in running.Just the stone he gave and a peck at the second last under pressure again. He stays on the list. Nearly brought us the end to August I was angling for. Serious horse. Sadly he was beaten by that rule they mentioned on the telly about pandering to TV dictates and encouraging novices into the races to bolster the numbers (by offering them less weight to carry). Further skewing of the old world. Hey ho. I will adapt to that given time to change my old ways!

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

21st:    +0.147(+1.4868) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.8

22nd:   -0.1    (+1.3868) Back @ 5.2

23rd:    +0.196 (+1.5828) Lay @ 3.0

24th:     -0.65   (+0.9328) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 16.0

25th:    +0.4017 (+1.3345) Back @ 9.05

26th:    +0.196  (+1.5304) Back @ 12.82 : Lay @ 8.15 etc

27th:    +0.196  (+1.7266) Lay @ 1.7

28th:    +0.098  (+1.8246) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 26.0

29th:    +0.052  (+1.8766) Lay @ 3.27 : Back @ 6.6

30th:    +0.098  (+1.9726) Lay @ 2.18 : Back @ 20.0

31st:     NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Salisbury (Sep 3)

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan – Entered at Uttoxeter (Sep 2)

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi – Entered at Sedgefield (Sep 4)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike – Entered at Hexham (Sep 2) & Southwell (Sep 3)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach -Entered for Southwell (Aug 31)

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose – Entered at Uttoxeter (Sep 2)

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE on the flat at Southwell Monday:

1-40 Samsons Reach @ 5/1 – 0.2pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge back at preferential odds as appropriate.

That’s how trading advice will be phrased from now on. I’m guessing you’ll have the hang if you are going that way by now. I am trading this one because it’s on the flat and I don’t trust it as a fixed odds tip. It could win though. Some of you are more flat specialists than I am. If you fancy it I’m sure you’ll ignore my trading caution!

The jumps to follows from now on will see more as straight back non-trades and increased stakes as I seek to play the second half of the cycle optimising profit and reinvesting some of the winnings. Wherever there’s doubt, I’ll switch back to trade!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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US OPEN preview DAY ONE:

plus winner portfolio and first round bets:

Not much to add to what I said yesterday except that you’ll have noted that Naomi Osaka withdrew from the Western Open final with a hamstring. She will therefore trigger my portfolio early I suspect as the lay although I’ve decided to watch her against Misaki Doi first. She’ll get the runaround from her compatriot if she shows up on court. We’ll see how real the injury is.

VALUE FIRST ROUND PICKS to start as 0.15pt BACKS for in play trading & hedging:

Yanina Wickmayer (8.6) to beat Sofia Kenin 

Stefani Voegele (5.7) to beat Maria Sakkari

Anna Blinkova (4.8) to beat Jennifer Brady

Madison Brengle (2.1) to beat Lesia Tsurenko

Kurumi Nara (2.1) to beat Patricia Maria Tig

So completes my first round list of potential upsets against the book. First line recommended way to play them is as in running trades and those I am able to play that way myself will be settled on here as such. It is also possible however for those who don’t have the time to do the trading to consider level stakes win singles on the above with a reasonable chance of overall profit. Two or three successful final result predictions will secure a level stakes profit and my bank management recommendation for that approach would be a level stake 0.05pt as acceptable risk. If you are that kind of player of course you could also plan small stake multiple perms from the above. They are chosen more for giving chance at a greening trade but the final result upset is also a possible in each case based on past form and head to head study so I don’t rule any of them out as possible upset wins. And the five timer would make a nice acca! I leave you to determine stakes for that approach. No official first round acca recommendations from the value picks.

 I reserve that for my list of first round bankers which is as follows:

Camila Giorgi (1.5) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck

 Alize Cornet (1.33) to beat Lauren Davis

Alison Riske (1.17) to beat Tatjana Maria 

Petra Kvitova (1.18) to beat Irina Begu

I stake that as a 0.25pt four timer.

My total bank management spend on first round fixtures is thus 0.5pt if you are backing at fixed odds and 1pt if you are playing as a trader.

Good Luck with your bets and enjoy watching some tennis!

BOZ

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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