BOZmail – 30th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 30th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.4067 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.654 points

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LESS IS MORE: NO PLAY DAY

I had two last September bets lined up at Newton Abbot but the great British weather has put paid to that and the only qualifiers we are left with are a Hamilton 6 runner affair in which three are Mark Johnston’s and two are Richard Fahey’s to be run on heavy ground. I could not invent a less appealing race to play in although I might have had a tiny go if we had plenty of September moolah to spend. We do not. Only other qualifier is a Roscommon Novice Chase in Ireland which I have had a look at but which also appeals about as much as washing my neighbours car! Damp squib end to a damp squib month with the staggered acca resurrection also proving off the mark. My apologies for that. On the recovery trail again in October but things ought to settle down there and these kind of spells do have to be endured without panic. Did think I’d turned it round in that mid month good week but that proved just temporary respite – just enough to get me back into the black for the month. If you haven’t managed that, worry not. Better stuff sure to be ahead.   

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 164/251 = 65.33% :   BACKS: 48/170 = 28.23%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.71 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer  

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

HORSE TO TRADE/FOLLOW on SUNDAY: (still to run)

5-25 MUSSELBURGH – KAIZER  @ 5/2 – 0.1pt BACK

(Backed @ 3.7-

Same again with this. They persevere again on the flat and he’s likely to run from the front so back before off at best price and hedge in running. Last chance on the flat for me though in this his easiest encounter. He’ll stay on my winter jumps list whatever however. Much more impressed with him over hurdles I was.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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