BOZmail 30th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 30th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +27.4267 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.7051 points (+5.7051 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 30.7071 points (+22.7071 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 82/115 = 71.30%  Backs : 22/71 = 30.98%

3-45 HUNTINGDON

The Distant Lady is second time after a wind op and is considered an unlucky loser from LTO when coming down after the last in what looked a pretty awful fall. Has been raised 4lb for that and the time of the race was promising but all seems harsh to me especially as those backing the fav are also taking recovery from that fall on trust.

Didn’t win the race either and although proven over the distance, that’s at lower level with less weight and breeding for stamina also looks suspect to me. Will get another strong Kielan Woods ride and stable are pinging but looks very short to me and I’m happy to take on with several in there on our side with a chance. Its’afreebee is the class on old form and has been touted more on the flat of late. Has to overcome stable cold spell over jumps (no winner for two years) but is a price preferable to the fav. In my market, he was proposed fav. Not a back for me but good LIM cover at the top of the weights. I go to the bottom of the weights for my back. Peter Bowen’s stable has been struggling since the return from lockdown but he pinged my old friend Francky Du Berlais in at 22/1 for the shortlist on Monday and the stable may be about to hit its stride. Sean is booked for Get An Oscar who hasn’t been showing much in the downturn but is now back to the winning mark he finished on last year and is the value in the race if that stable return to form is forthcoming. Been patiently handled by the Bowen maestro with a string of moderate runs to impress the handicapper into giving him a chance again and traditionally these are they that ping in at a price. Fricka is a novice to provide some cover and fellow lightweight Crystal Lad is being touted in the market travelling a long way from the Moore yard. Regarding Ruth also has an on paper chance should she turn out in this rather than her entry on the following day. All in all, a lot for The Distant Lady to do to land skinny odds.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on THE DISTANT LADY (around 2.5 and lower if you get offered it)

0.1pt BACK on GET AN OSCAR ( around 12.0 and might be worth taking early. Will be backed if the stable fancy it)   

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1         (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

21st:  -0.31    (+0.5201) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 6.0

22nd: NON RUNNER

23rd: NO BET

24th: +0.147 (+0.6671) Lay @ 3.0

25th: +0.098 (+0.7651) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 55.0

26th:  -0.15   (+0.6151) Back @ 2.0

27th: NO BET

28th: +0.196 (+0.8111) Lay @ 5.1

29th: +0.147 (+0.9581) Back @ 2.0

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY FOUR)

Heather Watson did her bit and took an early lead against the book allowing for a good trade but her exit means no Brits made it past round 1! Back to those bad old days! Still a few first round matches and trades to play on day three as I write so more tomorrow about those but nothing much new in the outrights at the moment except for thinking on whether I can see Iga Swiatek turning her sensational form on Halep in the last 16. Halep won 6-1 6-0 last time they met just over a year ago. Has Swiatek reached a stage where she could win meantime? Still thinking and watching for now. The only thing becoming clear is that clay courters are doing well especially after there has been some rain on the clay. Forecast plenty more of that in the days ahead.

Day Four presents several second round betting opportunities detailed below. Banker acca has a chance and looks sounder than the first round effort but is slightly less value.

I also have my eye on Errani in the value trades. She still has an interesting place in the draw.

Ostapenko was a fascinating watch. She plays second seed Karolina Pliskova next who was very jittery against a qualifier on day three. Watch this space!

Second round bankers acca:

Simona Halep to beat Irina Camila Begu @ 1.1

Serena Williams to beat Tsvetana Pironkova @ 1.4

Caroline Garcia to beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich @ 1.58

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova to beat Katerina Siniakova @ 1.66

0.1pt FOUR TIMER to return 0.4039pts 

Only Halep would seem a cert with her 7-0 back score but even Begu is not a roll over on clay. Should it rain beforehand, this will be my benchmark game to see whether Halep will at all be worth taking on. Serena should win again on mentality and consistency. Anything less and she will lose. Garcia was excellent first round and seemed to enjoy the sparse French crowd exerting less pressure more encouragement than she usually endures here. Her game is top notch on her day. Pavly didn’t play great against Kuznetsova but is a clay courter and if she wants it should be able to boss the flighty Siniakova whom she holds 3-0 on back score.

Second round trades:

0.1pt BACK Sara Errani to beat Kiki Bertens @ 3.5

0.1pt BACK Kaia Kanepi to beat EliseMertens @ 4.6

Mertens looked an improved player in US so I’m wary of that one and no taking chances with the hedge there. Take whatever small profit you get offered. Kanepi is an old warrior who is serve dependent but has a very good record through her career on clay and holds a small back score plus. Very interested to see how Errani fares against the number 5 seed who is a clay courter like Kanepi. Does rely on her serve too and wobbled seriously first round whilst the canny Italian sailed through to our cost as we know. Errani has a 5-0 back score but that is largely historical and includes two retired hurts so is likely flattering. Even so, the odds on Errani are juicy all things considered and Bertens can go brittle when not playing well as we saw first set first round. One to watch closely and be a bit more adventurous on especially if the Italian continues with the form she showed first round and in qualifying.

First round trades or value bets against the book:

0.1pt BACK Heather Watson to beat Fiona Ferro @ 5.5 – LOST (Trade Win)

Backed @ 5.5 : Hedged 0.22pts @ 2.78 : P/L = +0.1176pts (-0.1)

0.1pt BACK Shaui Zhang to beat Madison Keys @ 3.2 -WON

Backed @ 3.4 : Hedged 0.2pts @ 1.55 : P/L = +0.1274pts (+0.22)

0.1pt BACK Misaki Doi to beat Petra Martic @ 6.2

0.1pt BACK Jessica Pegula to beat Aryna Sabalenka @ 3.05

0.1pt BACK Daria Gavrilova to beat Dayana Yastremska @ 4.6 – WON

Backed @ 5.5 : Hedged 0.2pts @ 1.91 & 0.1pt @ 1.08 : P/L = +0.2548pts (+0.36)

Hedges taken at 5-2 first set & 5-3 match point second set.

1 pt LAY Jelena Ostapenko v Madison Brengle @ 1.3 – LOST (Trade Win)  

Laid @ 1.29 : Hedged 0.8pts @ 1.44 : P/L = +0.0607pts (-0.29)

There was only one chance for hedge with Ostapenko today. And of course the nature of the game that you have to be there for it when it occurs. Third game and after both players’ miserable attempts to hold serve, Brengle went 40-0 up on her serve and I snaffled my 1.44. Thought I would get loads more yoyo as Ostapenko’s attempts to hold serve were painful to watch but fortunately for her, Brengle was as bad! Ultimately the rocket groundstrokes of Ostapenko – which are up there with Osaka’s – played through the non clay court Brengle who wilted like a damp lettuce.

There’ll be more fun with Ostapenko yet though. That serve really is giving her some jip. A titanic mental battle to get through each service game. So there will be more yoyos ahead. And she may also go on and win the trophy again. That’s how it is with her. Unplayable on clay and grass at times. That forehand really does boom.

Outrights Portfolio:

0.1pt BACK Patricia Maria Tig @ 450.0   

Tig won well first round and has another possible win v McHale next round. I might start to look at hedging her if some 300 comes up because although I’m keeping Garcia,Swiatek,Gavrilova and Errani on my radar should Halep start to falter, I have started to think a Halep – Serena semi looks likely from the top half of the draw. In the absence of a lay at the moment (Halep not a candidate), I’m not inclined to increase risk by spending too much on speculative backs. Leave it another round at least to see how things pan out.

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required this time!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.2pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +0.5605pts

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River – Entered at Ffos Las (Oct 1)

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered at Ffos Las (Oct 1) & Hexham (Oct 2)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly – Entered at Warwick (Oct 1) & Hexham (Oct 2)

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY:

4-00 BANGOR – SAMSONS REACH @ 12/1 – 0.1pt BACK – LOST : P/L =-0.1pts

4-10 SEDGEFIELD – SPORTING PRESS @ 22/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 32.0 : hedged 0.21pt @ 15.0 : P/L = +0.1058pts

Both crossed off the list for that. Both ran below expectation. Samson’s Reach might come back on later when ground gets sodden but Sporting Press seems to have gone wrong and wind op hasn’t helped.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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