BOZmail – 30th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 
******************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************************NOTE:

The Boz is in absentia Wednesday evening and Thursday’s sheet will be

Posted early Thursday morning.
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WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 30th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.9887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.236 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

3-10 FAKENHAM

More scratty days either side of the solid eight day spell. Very frustrating. Partly the sparsity of choice but also just how it goes sometimes and the nature of LIM. Tuesday’s was a good value play and went close. Just didn’t win. The reverse of Skeaping day at Fakenham last week which also went extremely close but did win.

Has to be accepted and we carry on in caution mode and profit protection mode for a couple more days. Back at Fakenham on Wednesday though. Let’s hope that changes the trend!

This is hardly the most inspiring race and arguably a minefield to wade through with cases to be made against all the runners. And so does LIM sometimes land on these because the fav is too short. And if that’s The Detainee in this then I go along with that. Early tissue says 9/4. I’ll take that on. Something and nothing horse stepping up in trip but that looks in hope more than anything. No wins in eight hurdle efforts and nothing in breeding to suggest stayer although wins on flat have come in that department but in fairly bad races. Nathans Pride and The Darley Lama have better chance in my book with Regarding Ruth also on the radar.

But in a bad race, I take a chance on Todd who has course and distance form, comes in well on ratings and from the Olly Murphy stable that is running better now and specialises round here. Bottom weight and under a jockey who knows him and is ok and takes another 7lb off. If I hadn’t hit such a poor patch, I might be quite keen on this one! As it is, profit protection and just see if I can’t get out of the mire.  

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on THE DETAINEE (around 3.3 : no greater than 3.6)

0.1pt BACK on TODD (around 6.0)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 180/276 = 65.21% :   BACKS: 52/188 = 27.65%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

21st:  +0.975 (+2.766) Back @ 4.9

22nd:  +0.196 (+2.962) Lay @ 1.8

23rd:   +0.146 (+3.108) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 4.2

24th:   +0.196 (+3.304) Lay @ 4.3

25th:   -0.092 (+3.212) Lays @ 1.96 & 2.36 : Back @ 15.0

26th:   -0.18 (+3.032) Lay @ 2.2

27th:   +0.094 (+3.126) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 4.0

28th:   -0.555 (+2.571) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 5.0

29th:   -0.244 (+2.327)  Lay @ 1.96 : Back @ 9.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi Entered for Wetherby (Nov 2)

Unwin VC 

Commodore Barry – Entered for Wetherby (Nov 1)

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra 

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus – Entered for Stratford (Oct 31) & Uttoxeter (Nov 1)

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano – Entered for Wetherby (Nov 1)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa

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NH TO FOLLOW HORSE AT FAKENHAM:

2-40 NUBE NEGRA

Watch only. Too short a price to play. Should win but some interesting hard to assess ones against him. An educational watch.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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