BOZmail 30th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

FRIDAY OCTOBER 30th  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +37.4201 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.7558 points (+7.7558 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 39.0498 points (+31.0498 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7635 points (-0.2365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 98/136 = 72.05%  Backs : 26/85 = 30.58%

1-00 WETHERBY

Stable knew something I didn’t on Thursday. All past form suggested Memphis Bell would hate the heavy ground and knee action in running also suggested it so I thought we had terrific value in an even money lay (some of that gained in running where I was still confident early) but the horse moved forward like a knife through butter looking like one who perhaps wouldn’t like soft but sometimes the ground can get so heavy it becomes like firm ground and that was maybe it. Or the horse is just bouncing and improving out of its skin. Whatever it was, the stable knew.

One to take on the chin. The market obviously flagged it up. And it was market one, the Boz nil. Hey ho.

The Plan was to have a right go at this Novice Chase at Wetherby if things went right Thursday but as they did not, I’ve decided to play profit protection for the last couple of days of October just to keep the ship steady. So small stakes on what is a difficult race to be bullish about but I do like playing the market as a tactic because Snow Leopardess’ chase effort on debut behind The Butcher Said was pretty encouraging and gets a lump of weight here from Hold The Note who is the class based on that run behind Galvin at Chelters. Coming back from lay off however and not a huge plus over Shan Blue who is fit and has the recent course distance win here to recommend. That was achieved in good fashion and although giving weight because of it, would be my preferred of the front two to act as decent LIM cover. I fancy the punt though on Snow Leopardess who might just be progressive and gets the assistance of the champion jockey to add to the weight advantage. Value.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on HOLD THE NOTE (around 2.3)

0.05pt BACK on SNOW LEOPARDESS (around 17.0) 

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18 (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54 (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1 (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

21st:  +0.147  (+1.7907) Lay @ 2.9 : Back @ 11.5

22nd: +0.2154 (+2.0061) Lay @ 3.6

23rd: NO BET

24th:  +0.049  (+2.0551) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 5.5

25th: NO BET

26th:  +0.2156 (+2.2707) Lays @ 1.7 & 3.8 : Back @ 10.5

27th:   -0.194   (+2.0767) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 9.2

28th:  +0.275   (+2.3517) Back @ 3.75

29th:   -0.35     (+2.0017) Lay @ 2.00 : Back @ 9.4

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack – Entered @ Ascot (Oct 31)

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius – Entered @ Wetherby (Oct 31)

Calum Gilhooly – Entered @ Wetherby (Oct 31)

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde – Entered @ Ascot (Oct 31)

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething 

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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