BOZmail 30th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

MONDAY NOVEMBER 30th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 114/161 = 70.80%  Backs : 32/100 = 32%

2-10 AYR

Sunday helped to steady things. Getting one right always helps but I also decided to take the day as a research day and Paricolor helped me find the 50/1 winner of the first at Leicester and you’ll see I’ve also now acquired the 2nd and 3rd from the formline for our to follow list (had a bit of a weeding out as well to prune some of the dead wood and done for nows). Future winners for sure Falberto and Pepper Street at a modest level. And after Newbury, I’m ready for some more modest grade racing. Keep hitting the good stuff can dent one’s confidence if one does too much of it and gets it wrong! Competitive as it always is.Newbury a track I never have much luck at and Ayr is similar but not a great deal to go at again for our month ender and I’m keen to end on a consistent note if nothing else and at all possible. This Novice Chase looks my best chance.

Staying modest but keen to see if I can land it into plus four points for the month. Mayo Star looks the best of the Richards two on paper but both are chase debutantes so no exact science there and Sean Quinlan on Skiddaw Tara looks a good booking and a value play. Would be no surprise if he made the better chaser of the two. Class horse in the race is Skandiburg but doubts remain about his stable and jockey form and his chase debut was underwhelming as he jumped slowly and stickily. May come on from that and will need to but it was perhaps a better race than it looks on paper and he did stay on to be not far adrift of Young Wolf. No evidence that he handles heavy ground but one to have on our side without doubt as he is also second time out after a wind op. Empire Steel was my idea of the fav and might have been a lay at that but is a surprising 7/2 in the tissue. His yard will be bouncing with the success of Yorkhill on Saturday and this horse has the experience and the form and looks ok on the ground to expose any inexperience shown by Mayo Star. My back however is the third of the front three following two talismen learnings from last week which is an Irish raider bothering to come over and a jockey who is a very eye-catching booking and all I said he was last week. Sean Bowen on Hear No Evil carries my hopes for ending a funny old month that looked like it might be a stellar month at least on a positive note. Proven over the distance from LTO and is value because the ground is an unknown.His birth heritage however makes him a fair bet to revel in it.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MAYO STAR (around 3.0)

0.05pt BACK on HEAR NO EVIL (around 5.0) 

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) – Entered for Lingfield (Dec 1)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill – Entered for Exeter (Dec 4)

Al Dancer – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12) & King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) – Entered for Southwell (Dec 1)

Ga Law

Hitman – Entered for Exeter (Dec 4) & The Arkle (Mar 16)

First Flow – Entered for Tingle Creek,Sandown (Dec 5) & Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

Falberto – Entered for Ludlow (Dec 2)

Pepper Street – Entered for Leicester (Dec 3) & Sedgefield (Dec 4)

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

20th:   +0.343  (+3.595) Lay @ 1.3

21st:   – 0.329  (+3.266) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 4.5

22nd:  – 0.174  (+3.092) Lay @ 2.16

23rd:   +0.6566 (+3.7486) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 3.8

24th:   -0.318  (+3.4306) Lay @ 2.06

25th:   +0.7984 (+4.229) Lay @ 1.9 : Back @ 13.0

26th:   NO BET

27th:   -0.315    (+3.914) Lay @ 3.1

28th:   -0.23      (+3.684) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @11.0

29th:   +0.147   (+3.831) Lay @ 1.75

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +50.5177points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 31.7338 points (+11.7338 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 48.7244 points (+40.7244 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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